The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, in a joint strike by the United States of America and Israel must count as the biggest development in the conflict now raging in West Asia. Khamenei ruled with an iron hand and his long reign was marked by not only embeded hostilities towards the West but also the snuffing out of reforms and resistance within Iran. Khamenei’s adversaries would be hoping that this blow would precipitate the downfall of Iran’s conservative regime dominated by clerics and loosen their grip on Iran’s security apparatus. Donald Trump, the president of the United States of America, is on record urging the people of Iran to take over their government. There have also been reports of celebration at Khamenei’s death. But most Iranians, going by Iraq’s experience, are unlikely to want tyranny and disorder to replace a tyrant. Indeed, whether Iran’s old order crumbles or not remains to be seen. Tehran has already announced the name of Alireza Arafi in the role of an interim leader. Tehran’s leadership may not have been unprepared for this difficult moment. There has been speculation that Khamenei, mindful of such an eventuality, may have put in place the template of a succession plan. That Iran would intensify its retaliation, escalating the crisis further, is perhaps the most likely outcome for now even though global pressure for the cessation of hostilities is already mounting.

As for Mr Trump, his military adventurism in Iran may turn out to be a gamble. Amidst legal tiffs with the US Supreme Court, which dismissed his weaponisation of global tariffs, growing cynicism about his claims on the US’s economic recovery, and falling presidential ratings, the defanging of Iran’s current leadership, Mr Trump hopes, could improve his stock with the American voters. But the ironies are palpable. Mr Trump rode to power by pledging not to involve the US in wars around the world: unlike Barack Obama, Mr Trump has chosen military intervention over diplomacy with Iran. Worse, the attack also came at a time when negotiations between Washington and Tehran were underway. This, Tehran claims justifiably, is a breach of trust. Mr Trump will be hoping to succeed in ridding Iran of a repressive regime. None of his predecessors achieved that goal. But the price of Mr Trump’s success, if it does materialise, would be a West Asia ravaged by chaos and conflict.