Protectionism, the prevailing mantra of the current global order, has economic implications. These are well-known and discussed quite often. But the social and the moral consequences of insularity are now dawning. For instance, an increasingly inward-looking world appears to be decidedly cold towards the spirit of empathy. Consequently, global aid programmes, such as those in the realm of health, are facing deepening cuts. The projected impacts are chilling. A peer-reviewed study by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health that was published in The Lancet has estimated that depletions in aid programmes around the world could lead to an additional 22.6 million deaths by 2030 in 93 low and middle-income economies. A significant number — 5.4 million — of casualties in this list would be children. Sub-Saharan Africa, unsurprisingly, contributes a lion’s share of the countries at risk. But Asia, with 21 such vulnerable nations, is not far behind: India, too, figures on this list. Twelve nations from Latin America, 12 from the Middle Asia and North Africa and 10 European countries would bear the burden of rising mortality as well. Data suggest that international aid in health programmes began to fall in 2024 for the first time in six years. Prominent donors, such as the United States of America, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, tightened their purse strings, possibly on account of domestic economic challenges and the resultant austere mood. Official Development Assistance initiatives thus faced steep cuts.

What is tragic is that this impoverishment is taking place in spite of significant successes that the ODA has tasted in its battles against diverse health challenges around the world. Between 2002 and 2021, child mortality fell by 39%; HIV/AIDS deaths were reduced by 70%; malaria deaths as well as nutritional deficits had been arrested. Significant improvements in health outcomes had also been reported in these 93 nations. These gains have now been threatened by the fund cuts. What is even more shameful is that the world seems to be ignoring a valuable lesson learnt during the devastating Covid-19 pandemic: international cooperation in the form of sharing research findings, funds and vaccines made a great difference in that battle. Given the economic headwinds, aggravated by Donald Trump’s weaponisation of trade and tariffs, the replenishment of ODA initiatives is unlikely. The gap, however, could be an opportunity. Should regional allies form blocs to fill these gaps in healthcare?