If the poll results of Kerala’s local bodies turn out to be a barometer for the approaching assembly elections, Pinarayi Vijayan and the Left Democratic Front are likely to see red. This is because their principal and traditional rival, the Congress-led United Democratic Front, has bagged the lion’s share of civic and rural bodies. Of the six corporations, the UDF won four. It also bagged 505 of the 941 gram panchayats, 79 of the 152 block panchayats, 7 out of the 14 district panchayats and 54 of the 86 municipalities. What must come as an additional hammer blow — or should that read sickle blow? — was the Bharatiya Janata Party winning the corporation at Thiruvananthapuram, a red bastion for over four decades. The poor showing by the Left is being attributed to anti-incumbency and corruption. The Congress, understandably, will be buoyed by the outcome and hope that the momentum in favour of the UDF is sustained in the state elections. Winning Kerala would deepen the Congress’s imprint in South India and provide succor to a party that has tasted more defeats than victory in recent electoral contests. The BJP’s cadre will be galvanised as well. For a party that does not have a single legislator in Kerala, winning 50 of Thiruvananthapuram corporation’s 101 wards cannot be dismissed as an insubstantial achievement. The saffron party is already eyeing a clutch of assembly seats. The BJP's showing in the local polls would provide it with the energy to pursue the party's ambitious goal.
In a vast electoral field such as India’s, political arenas and rules are forever in a state of flux. But there are some unchanging facets too. If the UDF does well in the assembly elections just as it did in these local polls, it would indicate Kerala’s return to a tradition wherein power is shared between the Left and the Congress every five years. The Left’s triumph in 2021 would be relegated to the realm of an aberration. If that does come to pass, the comrades would have themselves to blame for proving the rule than the exception.
