Describing Osama bin Laden’s killing by the US special forces as a “unique moment” in the history of the region, the Indian prime minister landed in Kabul at a time when there is growing interest in India’s future trajectory in Afghanistan. Manmohan Singh announced a fresh commitment of $500 million for Afghanistan’s development, over and above India’s existing aid assistance of around $1.5 billion. New Delhi and Kabul agreed that the ‘strategic partnership’ between the two neighbours will entail cooperation in areas of security, law enforcement and justice, including an enhanced focus on cooperation in the fight against international terrorism, organized crime, illegal trafficking in narcotics and money-laundering.

This is a new phase in Af-Pak, and India is using its political capital to reinforce its centrality in the evolving strategic realities in the region. It is important to recall how different the environment was just a few days back when the Pakistani military was urging Hamid Karzai to dump the United States of America and look to Pakistan and its ally, China, for help in striking a peace deal with the Taliban and in rebuilding the economy.

India’s options in Afghanistan seem to have shrunk over the last few years despite being the only country that has been successful in winning the hearts of ordinary Afghans. By failing to craft its own narrative on Af-Pak ever since the US troops went into Afghanistan, New Delhi has allowed the West, and, increasingly, Pakistan, to dictate the contours of Indian policy towards the region.

Different views

Two major strands can be discerned in the debate on Afghanistan in India. There are those who argue that despite recent setbacks, India should continue to rely on the US to secure its interests in Af-Pak. They suggest that there is a fundamental convergence between India and the Obama administration in viewing Pakistan as the source of Afghanistan’s insecurity and the suggestion that the world must act together to cure Islamabad of its political malaise.

The other side in this debate has been getting impatient with India’s continued reliance on the US. According to this argument, the Obama administration has been systematically ignoring Indian interests in the crafting of its Af-Pak priorities. While actively discouraging India from assuming a higher profile in Afghanistan for fear of offending Pakistan, the US has failed to persuade Pakistan into taking Indian concerns more seriously. By pursuing a strategy that will give Pakistan the leading role in the State structures in Afghanistan, the West is only sowing the seeds for future turmoil.

Indian influence in Afghanistan rose significantly as American support for Pakistan shifted and Washington demanded that Pakistan adopt policies that India had long wanted in the aftermath of 9/11. Moreover, India emerged as a major economic actor in Afghanistan. But by refusing to use hard power and asserting its profile more forcefully, India soon made itself irrelevant as the ground realities changed and a divergence emerged between the strategic interests of India and those of Washington. India lost the confidence of its own allies in Afghanistan.

Moreover, Pakistan’s weak democracy and powerful military and intelligence apparatus have failed to get a grip on the problem that now threatens to overwhelm the Pakistani state itself. Ashfaq Kayani is wedded to the notion of ‘strategic depth’— making Afghanistan a kind of proprietary hinterland for Pakistan, free of Indian or other outside influence.

The death of bin Laden has given New Delhi an opportunity to prove to the international community that it is India, and not Pakistan, that remains a major partner of Afghanistan and, therefore, its concerns should not be ignored.