Mufti: Election gamble

Srinagar, Sept. 21: Chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed will look to enter the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly by contesting the October 13 byelections from Pahalgam, the Muftis? home district and a favoured tourist destination.

The decision of Mufti, a member of the state legislative council, to contest the by-poll has raised a few eyebrows as the chief minister has lost the Assembly elections three times before to National Conference candidates. He has won only one major election ? the poorly-participated 1998 Lok Sabha poll.

Mufti?s daughter and People?s Democratic Party (PDP) chief Mehbooba Mufti vacated the Pahalgam Assembly seat after being elected to the Lok Sabha last May.

If Mufti were to win the election ? the PDP won almost all seats from Pahalgam district during the October 2002 Assembly elections ? there are murmurs that he may not hand over the chief ministership to the Congress. As per the pre-poll arrangement with the PDP?s alliance partner, a Congress leader was to serve as chief minister for the remaining three years of the Assembly?s six-year term.

The common man and political watchers alike have begun speculating about the possible electoral fortunes of Mufti who has been a major player in Kashmir politics for nearly 30 years but has shied away from jumping into the electoral fray too often.

?He always managed to be in power without actually winning elections. His many defeats in the past at the hands of his rivals in the National Conference had dampened his determination, but now things are different. PDP (Peoples? Democratic Party) won almost all seats in this district during the 2002 Assembly elections and the Pahalgam election could be a one-horse race,? said Abdul Khaliq Wani, 67, a resident of south Kashmir?s Anantnag district.

But given his poor record against the National Conference, the chief minister?s rivals from the party have questioned ?Mufti?s very capacity to even win a local panchayat election? in the Valley.

However, Gowhar Mushtaq, a Mufti sympathiser, said: ?They ridiculed his political wisdom and now nemesis could be visiting them. Pahalgam could be the final Waterloo for them once Mufti sahib wins the forthcoming Assembly elections from there.?

The National Conference camp is unfazed. ?Let him fight a fair election without using the official machinery to further his poll fortunes and we shall take him head on,? a senior party leader said.

Most of the chief minister?s associates were unsure if he would contest the byelection, but they have been heartened by his decision and see a political future for the PDP.

One of Mufti?s closest aides said: ?The PDP is here to stay. It is not a passing summer shower. Mufti sahib has sent the right signal by joining the electoral fray.?

Most interesting will be the PDP?s attitude towards alliance partners if the chief minister wins from Pahalgam. There is speculation that a victorious Mufti might call for mid-term elections instead of handing over the reins.

?Everything, both for the chief minister and the PDP, is going to depend on Mufti?s victory from Pahalgam. These elections could be the political crucible in which the future political alchemy in Kashmir is tested,? said a keen Kashmir observer here.

Asked if he was certain of victory, the chief minister played cautious today. ?Every candidate who fights elections is always hopeful of his win,? he said.