At each of Calcutta’s 11 Assembly segments, the number of deleted voters far outstrips the margins by which Trinamool or the BJP led from these seats during the 2024 general election.

With Trinamool’s vote base of Muslims, women and the poor accounting for the bulk of the SIR deletions, as reported by this newspaper earlier, Bengal’s ruling party is expected to see several of its strongholds suddenly become unsafe seats.

In 2024, Trinamool had led from 9 of the city’s 11 Assembly constituencies and the BJP from 2.

Figures provided by poll panel sources show that more than 80,000 voters have been deleted in one particular seat (Chowringhee).

More than 70,000 voters each have been deleted in three other seats, more than 60,000 in one seat, more than 50,000 each in two seats and more than 40,000 each in the remaining four seats. The smallest deletion, witnessed by Maniktala, is that of 42,603 voters.

Trinamool had led by 8,297 votes from Bhabanipur, held by chief minister Mamata Banerjee, in 2024. The constituency, where BJP heavyweight Suvendu Adhikari will be in the fray this time, has seen the removal of 48,680 voters.

Trinamool had also led from Kolkata Port, Rashbehari, Ballygunge, Chowringhee, Entally, Beleghata, Maniktala andKashipur-Belgachia.

In four of these, the lead was less than 10,000 votes: Rashbehari (1,691 votes), Bhabanipur (8,297), Maniktala (3,575) and Kashipur-Belgachia (7,268). In another seat, Trinamool’s lead was below 15,000 — Chowringhee (14,645 votes).

“All these five seats have become vulnerable for Trinamool as the majority of the deleted voters are Muslims, who have predominantly voted Trinamool in the last few elections,” a source said.

“But the party is not safe in the other four seats where it had gained leads of more than 25,000, either, as the number of deletions is huge in these seats, too.”

Trinamool had led by 42,893 votes from Kolkata Port, which has seen 77,125 voters deleted, of whom more than 70 per cent are Muslim, the source said.

Beleghata — where Trinamool’s lead of 46,112 in 2024 is being threatened by 66,019 deletions — too is home to a large number of minority voters who have felt the brunt of the SIR axe.

A political observer suggested that deletions can cut both ways and the BJP should not feel too comfortable,either.

In 2024, the BJP had led by 1,599 votes from Shyampukur and 7,401 from Jorasanko. The two seats have witnessed the erasure of 44,693 and 76,524 voters, respectively.

“These two seats have witnessed the deletions of more Hindi-speaking Hindu voters than minorities. Since Hindi-speaking Hindus are believed to have voted largely in favour of the BJP in 2024, the saffron party too has reason to be worried,” the political observer said.