Samastipur (North Bihar), June 17: A confounded silence has descended on yesterday’s split in Bihar’s ruling order.

Beyond knee-jerk endorsement or opposition, the heartland is still to make sense of the radical shift effected by chief minister Nitish Kumar, or how it will play out.

“It’s happened like a passing express train,” remarked Rameshwar Chaudhary, retired schoolteacher from Musri-Gharari and participant in the anti-Emergency agitations of the mid-1970s. “Friends have overnight become enemies, how they conduct their battle, and what advantage third players like Lalu Prasad are able to draw will indicate which way things are headed. Don’t count anyone out.” The calculus of this fracture turns on too many variables, it will take time to figure.

Samastipur is a famed dateline, a milestone in contemporary India’s secular-communal discourse. It was here that L.K. Advani was arrested more than two decades ago by then chief minister Lalu Prasad, and his rath-yatra to Ayodhya aborted. Advani proceeded to churn an electoral windfall from that campaign, V.P. Singh lost his prime ministership, but Lalu became a “secular” icon, a messiah for minorities far beyond Bihar’s frontiers.

Under Nitish Kumar, a re-enactment of that confrontation has begun to unfold. His dare to the Narendra Modi juggernaut is aimed at signalling to the minorities he is the new “secular” bulwark, the guarantor of social harmony.

Depending on which side of the road you are, Nitish is either a daring hero or has just committed hara-kiri. To Muzaffar Alam, a cloth merchant, the import of Nitish’s move lies close at home. “He is one man who has stood up and said divisive politics will not work, we draw huge solace from the presence of such leaders, god speed to him.”

To Amarnath Sharma, neighbour in Samastipur’s main bazaar, the chief minister has acted out of “pique and blind ambition”. Never mind the BJP is promoting Narendra Modi, that is their matter, Nitish has rendered the government precarious. “Koi neta BJP mein badh raha hai to Nitishji ke pet mein itna dard kyon? Bihar mein achha kaam kiye hain, karte rahte. If someone is moving ahead in the BJP, why does Nitish’s stomach ache? He has done good work in Bihar, he should have stuck to that.”

Sharma’s stinging censure doesn’t go unretorted. “There are some things above power and local politics,” comes the sharp counter from Budhan Ram, a retired government employee listening on. “Desh mein aman chain bhi zaroori hai, Nitishji achha kaam kiye hain, mil baant ke rahne wala. Risk hai, lekin achha risk hai. Peace is essential in the country, Nitish has done well, he has done something in the interest of harmony. It is a risk but it is a good risk.”

An uneasy calm bounds about a day after the storm in Patna, as if something is about to give. “Tomorrow,” cautioned Kameshwar Jha, a young pharmaceutical salesman looking for a ride in the chaotic mill of midtown Samastipur, “Watch out for tomorrow’s Bihar bandh. It will set the tone for what is to come, watch tomorrow carefully.”

If that’s a warning political heat is about to stream out on Bihar’s streets, it could well be prescient. Smarting under Nitish’s rebuff, the BJP has sworn itself to vengeance. Confronted with Narendra Modi-led belligerence, Nitish’s ranks are gearing up to rally. Lalu Prasad, desperate to retrieve lost ground, will go out fishing in troubled waters the JD(U)-BJP breach has unleashed. Bihar is set to become a raucous battleground of multiple armies.

“Ferment is in the works after nearly a decade of relative calm,” was the sagely verdict of Ramadhar Mahto, tea-vendor at the Jandaha crossroads, just north of the Ganges from Patna. “Everything has turned topsy-turvy, khalbali machegi phir, log idhar-udhar bhaagenge, Bihar ke liye achha nahin hua. … There will be unrest, people will run hither-thither, this is not good for Bihar.”

A local elder, scanning the morning paper, looked up and filled in on Mahto’s fears. “We had a stable coalition running in Bihar, and things were happening. Now that is suddenly gone and Nitish has a minority government with a strong opposition in the BJP,” he said, easing into his analysis. “Nitish is alone now and the onus is entirely on him to deliver. He has thrown away a strong alliance, should he falter, he himself will be thrown…unhi ka party phekaa jaayega.”

The high ideological and political underpinnings of Nitish’s decision to walk out of the NDA — his dim and antagonistic view of Narendra Modi as a “threat democratic and secular” functioning — have yet to filter down to the ground and gather currency beyond more informed urban centres. The ideological leap against Modi will require strong legs to survive on. For, as even a sympathizer like Parvez Ahmed, a small rural contractor, said: “We are for him, but it is important he demonstrates he is strong enough to retain power, he will probably need friends, probably the Congress. But he needs to convince us.”

It’s a grind Nitish faces, with two local adversaries to outflank now, and one hovering closer from Gujarat. Adding to his core constituency and compensating for the losses will test the chief minister’s cunning and finesse, it will require renewed social and political engineering, while Nitish keeps one eye riveted on how his government performs hereon. For, at the moment, concern remains glued around how the parting will impact Bihar and governance. “There was no trouble here in the alliance,” chortled Jandaha’s Mahto, bringing another pot of rancid tea to boil, “It is Nitishbabu’s national worries that have landed us here. Was it necessary to open a stable government to risk? Dekhiye kya hota hai… Let’s see what happens.”