Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is navigating one of the most challenging stretches of his 11 years in office. A contentious ceasefire with archenemy Pakistan, renewed scrutiny over his age and a diplomatic chill with the United States despite much-publicised rapport with President Donald Trump have converged to test his leadership like never before.

While he needs to deal with these headwinds, Modi also has to answer opposition charges of vote-rigging in the 2024 general election. The challenges are coming to a head just before a difficult electoral battle in Bihar, one of India’s most politically significant states.

A defeat in the vote to the state assembly would not affect Modi's position in the national parliament, but it would be a hammer blow to the reputation of a leader who has maintained a vice-like grip on power since he was elected prime minister over a decade ago. This week, Trump's administration announced a total 50% tariff on imports from India, among the highest of any country in the world, throwing the bilateral relationship into deep disarray. Yet, until just six months ago, Trump and Modi were exchanging bear hugs and describing each other as close friends.

"The Indo-U.S. relation sort of revolved around the personalities of Donald Trump and Narendra Modi," New Delhi-based political commentator Arati Jerath said.

"So now when it's souring, Modi has no buffer at all. There is a fair amount of disappointment that this strong leader has not been able to show the kind of strength and muscularity that he claimed to have." Modi, however, has begun to push back. He said on Thursday the country was ready to stand by its farmers at any cost, without referring to the tussle with the U.S. on opening up the agricultural and dairy sectors to lower Trump's tariffs.

"India will never compromise on the interests of its farmers, livestock rearers and fishermen," he said at a public event. "And I am fully aware that I may have to pay a very heavy price personally, but I am prepared for it."

In a social media graphic posted by his party, Modi is shown taking blows on his back from stones, bricks and a dagger depicted as tariffs, while shielding a farmer with a plough on his shoulder.

Analysts say Modi's comments indicate that the tariff battle with the U.S. would be front and centre of the campaign in Bihar that is likely to kick off next month. According to a recent survey by the VoteVibe agency, Modi’s National Democratic Alliance will struggle to retain power in the state, largely because of a lack of jobs.

However, VoteVibe founder Amitabh Tiwari said any nationalist backlash against Trump is unlikely to sway voters in what he calls a "hyper-local election" in the economically backward state.

"There is no over-arching theme other than unemployment," Tiwari said.

World's most popular

In other signs of pushback against Trump, Modi is planning to visit China in coming weeks and is likely to meet President Xi Jinping as well as Russia's Vladimir Putin, suggesting a potential realignment in relations.

Modi remains the world’s most popular head of government, with an approval rating exceeding 75%, according to data intelligence firm Morning Consult. Yet, even his core Hindu nationalist base was unsettled by a surprise ceasefire with mainly Muslim Pakistan in May, following the most intense military confrontation between the two old enemies in decades.

The ceasefire sparked controversy at home and abroad. Modi’s government has repeatedly denied Trump’s claims that he leveraged trade negotiations to broker the truce. Trump has since notably strengthened ties with Pakistan, which publicly thanked him for his role in ending the conflict, further complicating India’s diplomatic narrative.

At home, the main opposition Congress party has presented what it says is proof of Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Election Commission "rigging and stealing" the 2024 general election by adding fake people to voter lists.

"There is a huge criminal fraud being perpetrated on this country by the Election Commission and the party in power", Congress leader Rahul Gandhi told a press conference on Thursday.

The BJP dismissed the allegations as Congress's frustration at repeated electoral losses: "When Rahul Gandhi can’t cheat his way to power, he calls it a conspiracy," it said on X.

The Election Commission asked Gandhi to "stop arriving at absurd conclusions and misleading the citizens of India". As Modi approaches his 75th birthday next month, his age has also become a topic of discussion, since other BJP leaders were sidelined after they passed the milestone. The BJP however maintains that there is no formal retirement age for its leaders.

All in all, analysts said, Modi faces an onerous task.

"Mr. Modi's brand value is now diminishing very fast, he needs to reinvent himself," said Rasheed Kidwai, visiting fellow at the Observer Research Foundation think tank in New Delhi.

"The sheen will come off particularly if he loses the Bihar election. Because in India, elections determine everything."