Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal had said last month that his party would fight all elections in the next two years in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat. All these states have Assembly polls in 2022 and, barring Punjab, are ruled by the BJP.

The renewed national ambition after a drubbing in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, when the AAP had contested 432 seats including Kejriwal unsuccessfully fighting Narendra Modi, is now poised to bear fruit. The AAP is trying to achieve national party status that entitles an outfit to use its symbol in any election across India and secure a place in public consultations at all levels of government.

The AAP is a state party in Delhi and Punjab. Three per cent of Assembly seats, or an 8 per cent vote share in Assembly polls in any two other states, would qualify it for national status.

However, the AAP’s ambition may nibble into any consolidation of anti-incumbency votes.

Of the six states, the AAP’s bid seems the strongest in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, besides Punjab where it is the principal Opposition. The party has been projecting Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh as its face in the mammoth state of Uttar Pradesh where it came fifth in urban local body polls in 2017.

Singh cut his teeth as an activist for hawkers’ rights in eastern Uttar Pradesh’s Sultanpur under the tutelage of socialist Raghu Thakur for two decades before he joined the anti-corruption movement in 2011, from which the AAP emerged a year later. Although he is a Rajput, Singh is not seen as a caste leader — a qualification in Uttar Pradesh’s politics.

“This year we plan to contest 3,000 zilla parishad seats that are spread over all 403 Assembly segments. We have a positive response to our agitations against the poor state of law and order, schools and hospitals and overpriced electricity…. People are attracted to us because they are disappointed with all parties that have ruled the state,” Singh told The Telegraph.

He added: “The BJP is highly unpopular among Dalits, Other Backward Classes and minorities who continuously face atrocities by them, such as (the government’s mishandling of) the Hathras (murder and gang-rape) case, and we are fighting to defend their rights…. We are the best choice to defeat them as we have done so thrice in Delhi.”

Veteran journalist Ambrish Kumar, who divides his time between Lucknow and Nainital, told this newspaper: “Although Sanjay Singh’s background is rural, his party is largely present in urban areas and draws volunteers from mainly the socialist as well as Hindutva political streams. The BJP is overwhelmingly popular among urban voters and the AAP has not been able to challenge that so far.

“In the state, the two main contestants are the BJP and the Samajwadi Party, with the Bahujan Samaj Party in third place.”

The AAP’s focus on Dalits, OBCs and religious minorities attracts those disgruntled with the BSP, SP and the Congress.

“Sanjay has a clean image, and has become influential in public discourse here. But that has never been enough to win polls in UP. The AAP has no caste base and though he is a Rajput, the community is largely attracted to leaders like Yogi Adityanath or Raja Bhaiya (who was part of Akhilesh Yadav’s ministry),” Kumar added.

At best, said Kumar, the AAP could try to enter an alliance with larger Opposition parties. “The party appeals to the urban middle class, both in UP and Uttarakhand, and is seen as not corrupt. In the latter, they have had the added advantage of attracting several environment activists and former statehood activists to their fold. They may do better in Haldwani, Dehradun or Nainital than they would in Lucknow. But the party is yet to find a face like Sanjay in Uttarakhand,” Kumar said.

In both states, the AAP has thrown challenges at incumbent ministers to publicly debate the state of government schools. The AAP’s Delhi leaders have gone with TV cameras in tow to visit schools, often being stopped by police. Its government in New Delhi is credited with greatly improving government schools.

The polity of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh has been bipolar so far. A major campaign for Goa in 2017, and a limited campaign for Gujarat the same year, drew blanks.

However, the AAP made a good debut in recent municipal polls in Gujarat to the detriment of the Congress.

The BJP’s seat share increased by almost 16 per cent, and the Congress’s shrunk by more than 20 per cent. The AAP replaced the Congress as the leading Opposition party in the Surat Municipal Corporation, where the Congress drew a blank.

The AAP won seats in other municipal bodies too. The BSP and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen also did well.

Almost silent about the BJP, Kejriwal said last week: “The people of Surat have handed over the responsibility to the Aam Aadmi Party as the main Opposition party and rejected the 125-year-old Congress.”

In Punjab, the AAP has suffered splits since the previous Assembly polls, and its Lok Sabha tally fell from four to a single seat in 2019.

The AAP is competing with the Congress in wooing farmers protesting the new agri regime. However, it came third, after the Shiromani Akali Dal, in recent municipal polls in Punjab — where sentiments against the new farm laws are the strongest. Kejriwal addressed a farmers’ conference in western Uttar Pradesh’s Meerut on Sunday.

Besides Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, the other four states are expected to witness a straight fight between the BJP and the Congress, with or without allies.

“For the urban middle class in north India, there are two political deities, Modi being the higher one and Kejriwal the lesser. In a choice between the two outside Delhi, they are likely to choose Modi…. But whether the AAP grows enough to cut the Opposition’s votes remains to be seen. It has had a good start by attracting several young people to it,” Kumar said.