A study revealing lower unmapping rates in Muslim-dominated Assembly constituencies along the Bangladesh border, compared to those where Hindus are in the majority, has raised serious questions over the BJP’s narrative that Bengal’s electoral rolls are flooded with the names of lakhs of Rohingya and Bangladeshi infiltrators.

The Sabar Institute, a Calcutta-based research foundation, which conducted a study on unmapping rates in Assembly constituencies bordering Bangladesh, has revealed a clear pattern: areas known to be Muslim-dominated have reported a significantly lower rate of unmapping, meaning that most voters could link themselves to the 2002 electoral roll.

“Since the political narrative of lakhs of Rohingya and Bangladeshi infiltrators’ names in the electoral rolls was pitched, we had planned to conduct an exercise to find out the reality once the draft rolls were published. However, when our researchers,
Ashin Chakraborty and Souptik Halder, compiled and analysed Election Commission data, they found the reality to be completely different from that narrative,” said Sabir Ahamed, a prominent social researcher, who is also associated with the Sabar Institute.

“While the unmapping percentage is below one per cent in multiple minority-dominated Assembly constituencies, the same rate is much higher — often crossing 10 per cent — in constituencies dominated by Hindu refugees along the Bangladesh border,” Ahamed added.

According to data released by the Sabar Institute, among Bangladesh-bordering Assembly constituencies, the lowest unmapping rate was reported from Malda’s Sujapur at just 0.54 per cent, followed by Murshidabad’s Suti and Raghunathganj at 0.56 per cent and 0.67 per cent, respectively. Muslims constitute around 90 per cent of Sujapur’s population and are the majority in both Suti and Raghunathganj.

In contrast, in bordering Assembly constituencies such as Dabgram–Fulbari in Jalpaiguri, where Hindus are in the majority (though Muslims form a significant part of the population), the unmapping rate stands at 9.98 per cent. This is followed by Hindu-dominated Malda constituencies like Habibpur and Maldaha, where the unmapping is 4.17 per cent and 4.12 per cent, respectively.

According to the study, the average unmapping rate across Bengal is 3.99 per cent.

The unmapping rate shoots up sharply in Bangladesh-bordering constituencies where Hindu refugees and members of the Matua community form the majority.

The study found that the highest unmapping rate was recorded in the Gaighata Assembly segment at 14.51 per cent, followed by Bagda and Kalyani at 12.69 per cent and 11.92 per cent, respectively. All the three constituencies are known Matua-dominated pockets.

The Trinamool Congress accused the BJP of spreading a false political narrative and claiming that the unmapping data had exposed its attempt to portray Bengal as a hub of Bangladeshi Muslim infiltrators and Rohingyas.

“Since the SIR was announced, the BJP has been desperately claiming that Bengal’s electoral rolls are flooded with lakhs of Rohingya and Bangladeshi infiltrators’ names. However, we did not find any such category once the draft electoral rolls were published,” said Trinamool spokesperson Kunal Ghosh.

“Now that the draft roll data has been analysed, the BJP’s false narrative stands exposed before the people of Bengal,” he added.

The BJP has, however, claimed that the 58 lakh voters — including absentee, shifted, deceased and duplicate entries — identified so far are just the tip of the iceberg, asserting that the Election Commission has found over 1.5 crore doubtful entries. These voters would be summoned for verification during the hearing process.

“Let the final electoral rolls be published, and everyone will see the data. There are over 1.5 crore doubtful voters who will have to face hearings. People do not trust what Mamata Banerjee or her party says about Rohingya or Bangladeshi infiltrators. The people of Bengal know the reality,” said BJP state president Samik Bhattacharya.

CPM leader Dipsita Dhar said the analysis of the draft electoral rolls corroborated what the party had witnessed during the SIR process, when voters — mostly Hindu refugees — were queuing up at assistance camps run by the party.

“I had posted on social media when the SIR was announced that Hindu refugees would be the worst affected. Finally, that has been proven. The reason is simple: Muslims in Bengal are not infiltrators; they have been living here for generations. That is why the BJP’s falsehood about Rohingyas and Bangladeshi infiltrators has been exposed,” Dhar said.