Among the four states and one Union territory that went to assembly elections, the result in Tamil Nadu, other than the one in Bengal, has been suggestive of a seismic shift. In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front, has, as expected, dislodged the Left, leaving India without a single state under the star, hammer and sickle sign. Assam, unsurprisingly, has been pocketed by the Bharatiya Janata Party yet again; the party has improved its performance further. In Tamil Nadu, the traditional two-way battle between the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam has, however, been upended by the rise of a new force: the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam led by the cinestar, Vijay, has delivered an electoral blockbuster, outpacing its more illustrious and politically experienced rivals in terms of poll dividends. Two factors may have propelled the TVK’s triumph. First, Vijay has shown considerable political intelligence by operating within the framework of Dravidian politics while giving it a new, energetic twist. There are hints that the TVK has bled the DMK the most. Second, he has managed to transfer his cinematic aura into political capital, striking a chord, especially with younger, urbane voters, on a range of issues, including corruption. In the days to come, it will be interesting to see whether the TVK manages to retain its uncompromising stance on secularism in a polarised political and social space.

The impact of the outcomes of this set of assembly elections would not be limited to regional politics. They will be felt nationally. Bengal’s conquest, along with its victories in Assam and a fledgling toehold in Kerala, will provide ballast for the BJP as the nation heads towards general elections in 2029. The next round of state elections features many of the BJP’s time-tested citadels anyway. Some of the stalwarts of the Opposition — the Trinamool Congress and the DMK — lie vanquished in their respective states. The Congress’s victory in Kerala would be offset by its timid surrender to the BJP in Assam. These reversals would thus seriously undermine the Opposition’s bid to reclaim Delhi. The internal equations within a fractious Opposition may undergo another round of transformation — not necessarily in favour of cohesion. Three years before 2029, it is advantage BJP — as usual.