A leader today, an outcast tomorrow. That is the familiar stuff of changing equations between political parties and their leaders. Mr Prafulla Kumar Mahanta?s expulsion from the Asom Gana Parishad, the party he founded 25 years ago, should, therefore, cause little surprise. In fact, the continuing feud between him and the present AGP leadership made it only a matter of time. That the party expelled Assam?s former chief minister ?for ever?, rather than for the customary six years, shows how bitter the factional squabbles had become. What is more relevant is the possible impact of Mr Mahanta?s next steps on Assam?s politics. This is not the first time that the AGP faces a split. Some of Mr Mahanta?s closest colleagues at the time of the founding of the party later parted ways with him to launch a breakaway faction. Although many of them subsequently returned to the parent party, the factional tensions stayed on. The result was the complete disarray in which the party found itself in recent years. The problems within the party also led to the collapse of its electoral alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party. Mr Mahanta?s expulsion will now end whatever hopes of unity and revival the party?s supporters had.

One man who should be gloating over the mess within the AGP is the chief minister, Mr Tarun Gogoi. With the next assembly elections less than a year away, a major split in the state?s main opposition party should be welcome news for him. Mr Gogoi?s government has not really lived up to the expectations it had raised in its first two years. Some of its ministers had faced serious corruption charges. Even the ruling Congress has not been free from ugly factional bickerings. Worst of all, despite the ceasefire with the militant Bodos, the spectre of insurgency continues to haunt Assam. True, Mr Gogoi took some steps to involve the United Liberation Front of Asom in peace talks. But the recent blast near the state secretariat in Dispur showed how futile the initiatives had been. A fractured opposition, apparently giving him a political advantage, can also be a source of new worries. Given the AGP?s close links with the All Assam Students? Union, it is possible that the latter will raise the pitch of its chauvinistic politics in order to win more of the opposition space. Competitive populism on ethnic lines can put Assam on a dangerous drift yet again.