Michael Kugelman in Patna on Monday. Picture by Jai Prakash

The withdrawal of US troops from the war-ravaged Afghanistan could multiply India’s terrorism concerns with terror outfits shifting all their focus to the subcontinent.

Michael Kugelman, senior program associate for South and Southeast Asia at Washington-based Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, said on Monday that terrorism in India and the relationship between India and Pakistan would worsen in the near future.

“The US is in the process of withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan. This can have a cascading effect, as the outfits fighting the US army in Afghanistan will be turning their attention to India and also Pakistan. India is at a higher risk and they will look for targets in the country. Terrorism in the country (India) is set to worsen. However, the present Indian Prime Minister will not be restrained as his predecessor and there will be a vigorous retaliation as well,” Kugelman, who was in Patna on Monday to participate in a lecture and interaction session on “US-India relations post 2014 and possible trajectories for India-Pakistan relations” organised by Patna University.

May this year had witnessed US President Barack Obama declaring that he planned to withdraw the last American troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2016.

As per the timeline outlined by Obama, the 32,000 US troops serving in Afghanistan at present will be reduced to 9,800 by early 2015. Also, by the end of 2016, there will be only a vestigial force meant for the protection of the embassy in Kabul and to help the Afghans with military purchases and other security matters.

The US had first entered Afghanistan after 9/11 and by 2011, they had more than a lakh troops in the country.

Kugelman, whose speciality is India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, added though that Narendra Modi’s visit to the US in September was positive towards the bilateral relations between the two nations.

“After he (Modi) became the Prime Minister and was invited by Obama, he accepted the invitation when he always had a choice to decline it considering that US has denied him visa for long. The meeting between him and Obama can be said to be historic as they met twice. It was different from earlier meetings of the leaders of both the nations. Both India and the US do have a strategic relation but both do not know exactly what they want from each other. This meeting is like making things clearer. Both the nations should clearly lay out each other’s expectations,” Kugelman said.