BJP state president Mangal Pandey (centre) and party workers come out after the meeting Sushil Kumar Modi’s residence in Patna on Saturday. Picture by Nagendra Kumar Singh

Patna, June 15: One political party is definitely smiling at all the political confusion gripping Bihar. It’s former chief minister Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

“I would have liked the two to remain together, so that I could have defeated them both,” the former Bihar strongman chirped, refusing to give Nitish Kumar any credit on secularism. “I still maintain, Nitish is a parrot of L.K. Advani,” he said.

Lalu landed in Patna from New Delhi on Friday evening — a day before schedule. Sources say he rushed to gauge the political mood after the split and to stop his own flock from switching sides in a fluid political aftermath.

But the party couldn’t hide its glee. “After eight years of being out of power in Bihar and a series of defeats, the tide seems to ‘be turning in our favour,” said a senior RJD leader, conceding that a BJP-JD(U) split would be a boost for his party. Lalu Prasad’s series of meetings in the districts to seek support for his Parivartan Rally last month had drawn huge crowds.

The rally at Gandhi Maidan was impressive, even if not on the scale of rallies he had called in the early 1990s.

To top it up, his party won the Maharajganj parliamentary bypoll with a convincing victory margin of over 1.25 lakh votes. “Laluji seems to be getting his social base arithmetic and language right,” conceded a JD(U) MLA, expressing surprise that even castes pitted against each other — like the Rajputs and the Yadavs — had come together to vote for the RJD in Maharajganj.

The BJP-JD(U) alliance was formed in 1996, immediately after the 1995 assembly polls in which the BJP got around 14 per cent of votes and emerged as the main opposition while the Nitish Kumar-led Samata Party got around 9 per cent of votes.

It was assumed then that the 16 per cent votes that went to the Congress would collapse and come to the alliance, making their votes almost at par with Lalu’s. That’s what has happened over the years.

Except for the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, when the RJD grabbed 22 seats, the alliance’s performance kept getting better and better and, finally, in 2005, Lalu was ousted.

With the allies now parting ways, it is presumed that the BJP would take a large chunk of votes. “Even the Congress, which has become non-existent in Bihar, had got over 10 per cent votes in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. The BJP, a cadre-based party having urban vote pockets in Bihar, can easily take over 16 per cent of votes the NDA had got, pulling the JD(U) down to a distant second position against an alliance of the RJD with LJP and, possibly, the Congress,” an RJD leader said.

“We are the asli (real) secular party. Nitish has been with the Sangh Pariwar for over 17 years. It is such a long period that it affects your mentality. Mentally, Nitish is communal,” remarked state RJD president Ram Chandra Purbey.

But many RJD leaders concede that once Nitish Kumar exits the NDA over Narendra Modi, the threat of Muslims shifting their loyalty to Nitish was real. Aware of this threat, Lalu on Saturday questioned Nitish’s secular credibility. “Nitish is unreliable. I can understand his pain at his mentor L. K. Advani, responsible for the Babri Masjid demolition, becoming redundant politically,” he said. He also accused Nitish of being autocratic towards MLAs and MPs and remaining a mute spectator during the Gujarat communal riot.