Another cyclone is brewing in the Bay.

A well-marked low-pressure area over the Strait of Malacca is likely to intensify into a cyclone on the Bay of Bengal by Wednesday, the Met office has said.

The Strait of Malacca is a narrow stretch between the Malay Peninsula to the northeast and the Indonesian island of Sumatra to the southwest, connecting the Andaman Sea and the South China Sea. It is over 1,500km from the Bengal coast.

The path of the cyclone after it reaches the southeast Bay of Bengal will determine its likely impact on Bengal, said Met officials. The probable path could be predicted around Tuesday, they said.

A Met report on Sunday predicted dry weather in south Bengal for the next seven days.

“Saturday’s low-pressure area over the Strait of Malacca and adjoining South Andaman Sea lay as a well-marked low-pressure area over the same region on Sunday morning. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining the south Andaman Sea on Monday. Continuing to move further west-northwestwards, it is very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm over the southeast Bay of Bengal during the subsequent 48 hours,” said a Met bulletin.

Once the cyclone takes shape, it will be called Sen-Yaar, a name given by the United Arab Emirates.

“The system is well over 1,500km away from the Bengal coast at the moment. The initial movement will be in a west-northwest direction. The possible destination will be determined by the path it takes after it emerges on the southeast Bay of Bengal,” said H.R. Biswas, who heads the Regional Meteorological Centre in Alipore.

Any steep northerly component in the path thereafter will bring the storm close to the Bengal coast, he said. If the storm sticks to its west-northwest path, it is more likely to move towards the southern or southeastern coast of India.

But there are other factors in play as well, said Met officials.

When the system turns into a cyclone, it will still be quite far from the coast. The Met forecast has ruled out the possibility of rain in south Bengal for the next seven days. It remains to be seen if the cyclone can sustain its momentum until it approaches the coast.