The National Democratic Alliance government has, as one of its strategic goals, the promotion of industrial manufacturing in India. The prime minister's "Make in India" slogan is an instance of this thrust. India has long been dependent on the services sector and, of course, helped by agricultural growth whenever the monsoons have been good. The growth of industry has never really picked up to the extent that it led the process of economic growth. This was owing to the general difficulty of setting up of business, high costs of capital, lack of investor confidence, lack of basic infrastructure and deficiencies in work culture. One important indicator of manufacturing potential is the performance of the core industries. In India the core sector comprises a set of eight industries that include cement, steel, fertilizers, coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products and electricity.

The latest figures available for March 2015 indicate that this sector as a whole has actually contracted by 0.1 per cent. This performance is the worst since October 2013. In February 2014, the growth rate was 6.1 per cent and even in February 2015 the growth rate still remained positive at 1.4 per cent. The fiscal year 2014-15 saw a growth of 3.5 per cent for this sector, which was the lowest clocked in the past six years. These industries together have a weight of 38 per cent in the Index of Industrial Production. Hence, in terms of their relative importance and the essential nature of these infrastructure industries the latest numbers are a cause for concern. It indicates a significant slowdown, and merely trying to talk and encourage investors may not work to revive manufacturing. Supply bottlenecks, inadequacy of demand and related economic policy issues have to be understood better and revival measures taken industry-wise. Meanwhile, the pressure on the Reserve Bank to reduce interest rates is likely to mount. However, given the conservative stance of the central bank, and its priority in controlling inflation, rate cuts are unlikely. One might argue that data for one month may be inadequate to justify firm conclusions. The trend, however, reflects a slowdown and calls for some major rethinking on industrial strategy.