With the passing away of Shangwang Shangyung Khaplang on June 9, the situation in the Northeast will be keenly watched not just by the powers that be but also by the denizens of the seven states of the region. Khango Konyak was a natural choice to assume the leadership as he was already looking after the affairs of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang) since the former chairman was ailing for quite sometime.
The tussle for leadership in the United National Liberation Front of Western South East Asia will now offer an interesting fare. While Khango Konyak would be the front runner by virtue of the NSCN(K) being the predominant outfit in the conglomerate of 11 militant outfits, the other prominent leader, Paresh Barua, of the United Liberation Front of Asom (Independent), could also stake his claim for the top post. Khaplang was the chairman of the UNLFW till his death. The other leader who could have staked claim is R.K. Meghen, the top man of the United National Liberation Front. But his imprisonment in Guwahati keeps him out of reckoning.
The NSCN(K) is in a peace truce with the Myanmarese government since 2012. It thus has a comfortable base to carry on with its anti-India activities in collusion with other foreign agencies like Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence and the People's Liberation Army of China. In fact, it was in a meeting in the Yunan province of China that the idea of uniting the different militant outfits germinated way back in 2011. That the PLA had been training Northeast's insurgents in the late 1960s and the early 1970s is a known fact.
Clear the air
With the deteriorating relations with China, the possibility of Beijing instigating the militants through the UNLFW cannot be ruled out. The recent skirmishes between the Indian troops and the Chinese soldiers show that all is not well on the diplomatic front. This could prompt the Chinese to foment trouble in the Northeast through militants based across the border. This could also prompt them to hoist a leader of their choice on the UNLFW.
India has had a hostile relationship with the NSCN(K). The result was an attack on an army convoy in Chandel that killed 20 jawans. The NSCN(K) was a party to the truce with the Indian government along with the NSCN(I-M) till March 2015. The former abrogated the 14-year-old ceasefire agreement and retraced its steps back to the path of violence.
The Framework Agreement signed by the National Democratic Alliance and the top leadership of NSCN(I-M) in August 2015 has been shrouded in secrecy, giving rise to suspicion about the government's motives. A long-standing demand of the NSCN(I-M) for Greater Nagaland with parts of Assam, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and even Myanmar seems to have been settled. But scepticism continues to haunt the states and also the Naga population. While the NDA basks in the glory of having arrived at an agreement with the NSCN(I-M) that was hastily drafted and signed in deference to the wishes of Isak Chisi Swu, it has aroused the suspicion of all the affected parties.
The Bharatiya Janata Party succeeded in forming a government in Manipur, albeit in a devious way, on the basis of the agreement. But if it is finally disclosed that the Nagalim factor has remained unaddressed, the people would feel cheated. The peace process could then be derailed. If the situation turns awry, it could swell the ranks of insurgents and the Northeast will again go up in flames. Following the death of Khaplang, the possibility of the NSCN(I-M) joining hands with UNLFW cannot be ruled out. The Chinese are itching to jump into the fray. The cloak of secrecy surrounding the Framework Agreement needs to be removed lest the people and the insurgents give vent to their ire in a malefic manner.
