The Opposition’s forecast for Nitish Kumar, the Bihar chief minister, may be coming true.

On the day of Holi, Patna was abuzz with the possibility of Nitish heading back to New Delhi, this time in the Rajya Sabha.

The Rajya Sabha elections in the state are due on March 16.

During the run-up to the Bihar Assembly polls, the Congress national president and leader of Opposition in the Rajya Sabha Mallikarjun Kharge had claimed the BJP-led NDA would not let Nitish become chief minister once again.

The BJP-JDU combine had trounced the Mahagathbandhan in last year’s Assembly polls, with the BJP emerging as the single largest party winning 89 seats in the 243-member Assembly.

Nitish then took oath as chief minister for the 10th time.

In the 10 times that Nitish has taken oath either with the NDA or the Mahagathbandhan, no party has dared to change the status quo; they have all let Nitish run the show.

Except for a brief while when Jitan Ram Majhi was Bihar chief minister from May 2014 to February 2015, Nitish has been in the hot seat since 2005 and has won successive elections with different allies.

The emergence of the BJP as the single largest party in Bihar is possibly the single most important factor behind the move if it happens.

Sources said the BJP probably did not want to play second fiddle to Nitish any longer.

Sources indicated that Nitish could continue as chief minister till the Rajya Sabha polls are held. Elections to five seats from the state will be held in the elections scheduled for March 16.

During the poll campaign in last October, at a public meeting in Vaishali, Kharge had claimed: “Nitish Kumar is sitting in BJP’s lap, but it won’t make him chief minister; instead, give the post to some ‘chela.’"

The names of Bihar’s deputy chief minister Samrat Choudhary and Union Minister Nityanand Rai are already doing the rounds as Nitish’s replacement. The BJP under Narendra Modi and Amit Shah has gained a reputation for throwing wild surprises. If Nitish indeed resigns, the BJP could pick someone new from its ranks.

The move follows a pattern. In Maharashtra, post the Assembly elections in 2024, the BJP emerged as the single largest party in the state and promptly forced Eknath Shinde to accept the deputy chief minister’s post although he went to the polls as the state’s chief minister.