Patna, May 30: It’s double delight. First came the news of normal monsoon in Bihar this year. Now, the Met department has forecast its timely arrival.

“Monsoon, in all likelihood, would reach Bihar on time,” Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) deputy director-general (weather forecasting) A.B. Mazumdar told The Telegraph today over phone from Pune.

The normal date of monsoon reaching Bihar is June 16. A deviation of eight days from normal is considered to be a normal phenomenon.

“Going by our observation, chances of a late arrival of monsoon in Bihar is very less this year,” Mazumdar said.

Similar was the observation of Abdul Sattar, the assistant professor of Meteorology at Rajendra Agriculture University (RAU), Pusa. He had said: “The progress of monsoon has been very good and if conditions remain favourable, the rain bearing winds would reach Bihar on time.”

The words of these experts would be music to the state policy makers as well as those from the farming community. Bihar witnessed severe drought in two consecutive years.

While the state received just 682.6 mm of rainfall in 2010, the precipitation in 2009 was 871.3mm, well below normal. In a normal monsoon year, Bihar receives 1176.4mm of rainfall.

The scanty rainfall in the past two years had an adverse impact on the rice cultivation in Bihar. Its production came down to 35.14 lakh metric tonnes in 2009-10 and 35 lakh metric tonnes in 2010-11. In a normal monsoon year, the state produces well over 40 lakh metric tonnes of rice, the main kharif crop cultivated in Bihar during the rainy season.

“Majority of our farmers depend on rains for paddy cultivation and prediction of a normal and timely monsoon would certainly boost chances of a healthy kharif crop this year,” agriculture department expert Anil Jha said.

He maintained that the department was keeping its finger crossed as IMD had predicted normal rainfall last year also but in reality it turned out to be just the opposite.

Giving reasons for poor rainfall in the past two years, Sattar said the monsoon trough line had shifted southwards in the past two years and there was irregular and reduced number of formation of depressions in Bay of Bengal, leading to poor rainfall in the state.

Monsoon trough line is a low pressure area extending from west to east at a height of 3 to 5km and monsoon remains active in the areas falling south of this trough line. In a normal monsoon year, this trough line generally remains positioned north of Bihar and induces good rainfall.

“This year, the monsoon trough line has started to establish itself and in all probability its northward movement would bring good rainfall to the state,” Sattar said.