Patna: The Congress, which on Monday declared Shambhu Singh Patel as candidate for the Bhabhua Assembly bypoll, is banking on the area's caste equation to retake the seat it had last held during 1990-95.

It will also have to counter the supposed sympathy wave among the voters in favour of Rinky Rani Devi, widow of the incumbent BJP MLA Anand Bhushan Pandey.

Since 1995, the RJD, the LJP, the BSP and the BJP have won the seat in turns.

"We are definitely going to win Bhabhua seat with a huge margin. I am saying this on the basis of the prevailing caste equation of votes there. The BJP stands nowhere in the picture," said Bihar Congress president in-charge Kaukab Quadri. The Bhabua Assembly segment has around 42,000 votes belonging to the Kurmi and Koeri castes together. The two castes usually vote together. At second place with regard to numerical strength are Brahmins with around 35,000 votes, followed by the Scheduled Castes (35,000 votes).

The Binds, who come under EBC (Extremely Backward Class) category, have 20,000 votes, Rajputs have 14,000 votes, and Yadavs have 13,000 votes. Another large chunk is the religious minority community, which has around 18,000 votes.

Shambhu is a Kurmi and is expected to attract Kurmi-Koeri votes. As a Grand Alliance (RJD plus Congress) candidate, he will also have the Yadavs in his favour.

Rinky is a Brahmin.

"Congress stands for every section of the society and secularism. The Dalits, EBCs and minorities, who are not feeling comfortable under the NDA regime, will also vote for our candidate," Quadri asserted.

Sadanand Singh, Congress legislature party leader in the Assembly, pointed out that RJD stalwart Jagadanand Singh hails from the area.

"He is a Rajput and wields influence in the area. Moreover, our candidate, Shambhu, has been selected by the high command on popular demand," Sadanand added.

Asked, Quadri denied there was any sympathy wave in favour of Rinky.

The Bihar Congress president in-charge also attacked chief minister Nitish Kumar's JDU for doing a u-turn after announcing that it won't contest the bypolls for the Araria Lok sabha and the Jehanabad and Bhabhua Assembly seats.

"The U-turn shows fear in the NDA camp about losing at the hands of Grand Alliance," Quadri said.

"The fear has led to confusion and lack of coordination. The JDU first pulled away from the contest due to fear, but entered the fray to avoid the stigma of a deserter."