Russian President Vladimir Putin begins a two-day visit to India on Thursday with a pitch that goes to the heart of Moscow’s economic and military ties with New Delhi: more Russian oil, missile systems and fighter jets at a moment when US pressure weighs on the relationship.
It is his first trip to the Indian capital in four years.Russia has supplied arms to India for decades, and New Delhi has become its top buyer of seaborne oil despite Western sanctions imposed after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
But India’s crude imports from Russia are set to hit a three-year low this month, coinciding with tighter sanctions and a rise in Indian purchases of US oil and gas.
“Putin’s visit offers an opportunity for Delhi to reassert the strength of its special relationship with Moscow, despite recent developments, and make headway in new arms deals,” said Michael Kugelman of the Atlantic Council in Washington.
New initiatives were likely, he added, even if they mostly touched “low-hanging fruit” in the relationship.
THE TRUMP FACTOR
But Indian officials worry that any fresh energy and defence deals with Russia could trigger a reaction from U.S. President Donald Trump, who doubled tariffs to 50% in August on Indian goods, as punishment for New Delhi's purchases of Russian crude.
Ahead of Putin's visit, officials of both sides held talks in areas from defence to shipping and agriculture. In August, they agreed to launch talks for a free trade deal between India and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union.
They are also in talks to expand their partnership in civilian nuclear energy, Indian analysts have said.
Putin's delegation includes the chief executives of dominant Russian lender Sberbank and state arms exporter Rosoboronexport, as well as the heads of sanctioned oil firms Rosneft and GazpromNeft, an industry source with direct knowledge of the matter said.
Ahead of the visit, Sberbank said it was interested in investing in Indian infrastructure projects making use of rupees, in which a big chunk of two-way trade is settled.
India CEO Ivan Nosov said Sberbank was also extending rupee loans to Russian exporters and local units to boost Indian sales of Russian products.
Moscow is likely to seek India's help to get technical equipment for its oil assets, as sanctions have choked access to key suppliers, said the industry source and a separate Indian government source.
The spoke on condition of anonymity as the matter is a sensitive one.
India is likely to pitch for the restoration of a stake of 20% for state gas explorer ONGC Videsh Ltd in the Sakhalin-1 project in Russia's far east, the government source added.
India hopes to sign a U.S. trade deal by year end, as most of its refiners have stopped buying Russian oil, though widening discounts are now drawing in some state refiners.
The sources sought anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to media.
INDIA LOOKS TO RUSSIA FOR DEFENCE SPARES
Unlike crude, India does not plan to freeze defence ties with Moscow anytime soon as it requires support for the many Russian systems it operates, Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh said last week.
Russian Sukhoi-30 jets make up the majority of India's 29 fighter squadrons and Moscow has also offered its most advanced fighter, the Su-57, which is likely to figure in this week's talks, said two Indian officials familiar with the matter.
India has not yet made a decision on buying the jet, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
But India is likely to discuss buying more units of the S-400 air defence system, Singh said last week.
Recent U.S.-Russia talks to end the Ukraine war could help make it easier for Indian officials to engage with Moscow, said Harsh Pant, head of foreign policy studies at India's Observer Research Foundation think tank, though ties appear strained.
"A large part of the trading relationship was based on energy, which is now losing traction under the threat of sanctions from the United States," he added.
"And at the end of the day, only defence remains, which continues to bind the two together."
