A depression lurking on the northwest Bay of Bengal is expected to make landfall somewhere between south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh on Saturday.
The Calcutta forecast for Panchami (Saturday) predicts a generally cloudy sky with light to moderate rain.
The same is expected for Sashthi (Sunday) through Ashtami (Tuesday).
The intensity and spread of rain could increase after September 30 (Ashtami), when another system from the depths of the Bay approaches the east coast of India.
A Met bulletin issued on Friday predicted heavy rain in Calcutta on October 2 (Dashami).
What was a low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal on Friday morning intensified into a depression near the Odisha-Andhra Pradesh coast on Friday evening.
“It is very likely to cross the south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coast on Saturday morning. After landfall, the system is expected to move west and reach India’s western border. It will weaken due to resistance from poles, trees, and houses but could revive after being nourished by the Arabian Sea,” said a Met official.
“But the impact on south Bengal will be limited to heavy rain in some districts and light to moderate rain elsewhere in south Bengal. South 24-Parganas, East and West Midnapore, and Jhargram may experience heavy rain,” the official added.
An extended range forecast, valid for a fortnight and issued on Thursday, stated: “In addition to the low-pressure system mentioned above, there is likely to be the emergence of an upper air cyclonic circulation over the north Andaman Sea around September 30. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the north and adjoining central Bay of Bengal around October 1.”
“There is a low to moderate probability of its intensification into a depression over the northwest Bay of Bengal around October 2,” it added.
The deluge on Tuesday has raised fears of a washout this Puja. The Met forecast will not disappoint organisers, who were fearing worse.
On Friday, the day was bright, sunny, and humid in the morning, but it turned cloudy with a spell of rain in the afternoon. The sky remained cloudy even after the rain.
More than one spell of rain is not ruled out on Sashthi, Saptami, Ashtami, and Navami. However, if sunny intervals separate the showers, pandal hoppers are expected to brave the elements.
Pandal hoppers were already out on the streets. Most of the big-ticket pujas have been inaugurated, and some were crowded on Friday night.
“Another spell of heavy rain on any of the Puja days will be devastating,” said a man selling toys near the Mudiali Durga Puja.