That the National Democratic Alliance won Bihar does not come as a surprise: neither the exit polls nor serious analysts had foreseen a change of regime in that state. But the manner in which Bihar has rewarded the ruling regime must have come as a surprise to even the most optimistic member of the NDA and sent seismic shocks to its challenger, the Mahagathbandhan. The NDA has swept Bihar, with each of its principal constituents performing exceptionally well. The Bharatiya Janata Party has bettered its tally from 2020 and staked a claim to being Bihar’s largest party; the resurrection of Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) — it had won a little over 40 seats in 2020 — has been even more spectacular with the party’s electoral kitty swelling to over 80 seats; Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) has, according to some estimates, delivered the best strike rate in the NDA. This augurs well for this young leader’s political future, especially once Mr Kumar hangs up his boots. But it is Mr Kumar who can claim the NDA’s triumph to be his own. He defied a lighter electoral footprint, supposed ill health, and whispers of the BJP stealing his crown to stamp his presence, once again, on Bihar’s electoral map. His undiminished stature among women voters, adroit mobilisation of extreme backward classes, non-Yadavs and Mahadalits, and his welfare measures have been instrumental to his victory. The scale of the triumph would undoubtedly further energise the BJP to win other states
— especially Bengal. What remains to be seen is how the NDA goes about meeting its rather tall electoral pledges in Bihar.

Meanwhile, the light has gone out of the Mahagathbandhan’s life. The Rashtriya Janata Dal’s lantern has dimmed considerably when compared to its commanding performance in 2020. It is evident that Tejashwi Yadav has failed to expand his party’s social base beyond the Yadav-Muslim combination. Its Muslim support seems to have eroded too, given that the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen has won five seats. The Congress, the Mahagathbandhan’s perpetual laggard — why is it even considered a contender in Bihar? — has fared worse than last time. None of the issues on which the Opposition created its electoral plank — joblessness, vote chori and, of course, the Election Commission of India’s Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls — has struck a chord with Bihar’s voters.

There is a larger — stranger — story concerning Bihar that is perhaps no less important than the battles on the political field. It cannot be denied that Bihar’s performance for decades, not years, has been dismal not only on economic parameters but also on indices pertaining to human development. Mr Kumar’s rule in the last two decades may have been better than the days of the jungle raj but Bihar still occupies the lower blocks of India’s development pyramid. Yet, Mr Kumar and his allies — they change periodically — are being voted back to power. Is this indicative of a worrying inertia — scepticism — on the part of the electorate? If so, it is also ironic given Bihar’s luminous history of experiments in social change. Whether this stagnation is a testament to the Opposition’s ineptitude or the ruling regime’s contentment with a socio-political arrangement that delivers on welfare — partially — but resists meaningful emancipation should be a matter of interest for the scholar and the political pundit.