Tactical move

In an attempt to refashion its policy on South Asia and to showcase a new proactive stance in global politics, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, will be visiting Pakistan in early October. This will be the first visit by a Russian president to Pakistan. The visit will thus be loaded with significance. Putin will also participate in a quadrilateral meeting on Afghanistan with the leaders of Tajikistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan. As the Nato forces prepare to leave Afghanistan, new alignments involving regional powers are emerging. Ties between Pakistan and Russia are also taking a new turn. This holds great significance for India and the South Asian region.

Pakistan’s efforts to improve its relationship with Russia in the wake of the deterioration in relations with the United States of America have been evident for some time. Islamabad finds itself with few friends across the globe. Even China has been circumspect about what it can offer to its ‘all-weather friend’. The Pakistan president, Asif Ali Zardari, visited Russia in May. The nation’s army chief, Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, will be in Russia this month. Pakistan hopes Russia will start selling it substantial defence equipment. Both countries are also trying to increase their presence in Central Asia. Russia wants stability in its Central Asian periphery, and Pakistan remains critically important to the management of the region. Moscow’s outreach to Islamabad is an attempt to get a handle on this regional dynamic. The Russian president's special envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, visited Pakistan earlier this year. His trip laid the groundwork for Putin’s visit.

Russia has taken note of the changing priorities within Indian foreign policy as well as the recent downturn in US-Pakistan ties. The US-India rapprochement has been problematic for Russia. As India moves away from Russia, its dependence on Russian defence equipment decreases. Hence Moscow is also looking for alternatives. Moscow also recognizes the importance of Pakistan in restoring stability to Afghanistan after 2014 and to the larger Central Asian region. So there are various factors at work here in this outreach.

It was Putin who had publicly endorsed Pakistan’s bid to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and had offered Russian help in managing Pakistan’s energy infrastructure. He went on to suggest that Russia views Pakistan as a reliable and important partner. Russia’s Gazprom wants to invest in the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. Meanwhile though, Russia has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the externalities from the US-India civilian nuclear energy cooperation pact, there have been rumblings in Moscow regarding the manner in which the Kudankulam project has been handled so far by New Delhi.

After deciding to ignore Pakistan for decades in its arms sales matrix, Moscow has now decided to gradually start weapons sales to Pakistan. Russia is the world’s second-largest arms exporter with a 24 per cent share of the global arms trade, surpassed only by the US which controls almost 30 per cent of the global arms market. India continues to account for over 50 per cent of Russian arms sales, but New Delhi has diversified its suppliers. As the arms market becomes a difficult place for Russia to navigate, with China deciding to produce its own weapons rather than procuring them from Russia, Moscow needs new buyers. India’s moving away from Russia has been gradual but significant. The MMRCA deal was as big a setback to Russia as it was to the US. Defence sales to Pakistan can open up a potentially new and open-ended market for Russia as the appetite in Washington to sustain Pakistan’s military-industrial apparatus declines dramatically. The defence cooperation as envisaged by the two sides may involve joint military exercises, exchange of personnel and defence sales.

But there are limitations as well. Moscow can never substitute Washington in so far as aid and defence dependence of Pakistan is concerned. It is severely constrained in what it can do and Pakistan’s needs are huge. It is unlikely that Russia will emerge as a major benefactor. But Pakistan wants to show the US that it has other options.

Moscow has always been critical of the Pakistani military establishment’s propensity to use extremist groups to further their nation’s strategic ends. It remains worried about this tendency. So pressure will continue to be on Pakistan. The Russian establishment also feels strongly about the possibility of nuclear technology falling into the hands of extremists in Pakistan and has been very vocal about this threat. Moscow will also be cautious in sharing its defence technology with Pakistan as it would not like to alienate India, one of its largest markets for defence equipment, any further. Russia deals with India on a number of levels including BRICS, and that partnership could be in jeopardy if Pakistan becomes a major priority for Moscow.

India will be looking at this development with great interest but something big will have to come out of these meetings for New Delhi to be worried. India’s ties with Russia are historic, wide ranging and well institutionalized. Russia will do its best to assuage Indian concerns, and New Delhi should largely be satisfied with it. It depends on the future trajectory of Russia-Pakistan ties as to how it will ultimately impinge on Indian interests. The US-China-Pakistan ‘axis’ was India’s biggest headache during the Cold War years. Unless managed carefully, a Russia-China-Pakistan ‘axis’ may emerge as an even bigger threat in the coming years.