New Delhi, Feb. 14: The 57 seats that will vote in parts of Avadh and east Uttar Pradesh tomorrow are expected to reinforce the main trends manifest in the first two phases of electioneering.
The “Basapa (BSP) hatao, Sapa (Samajwadi Party) abhiyaan” — throw out the BSP and bring in the Samajwadi campaign — is apparently regrouping the votes of the upper castes (Brahmins, Thakurs and the Banias or Vaishes), the more backward castes and even sections of the Dalits behind Mulayam Singh Yadav.
As for Mayawati, she is increasingly in peril of retaining only her core Jatav votes.
The Congress faces a crucial test in the four seats of Jagdishpur (SC), Amethi, Gauriganj and Isauli that fall in Sonia Gandhi’s and Rahul’s Lok Sabha constituencies, Rae Bareli and Amethi, as well as in the Sultanpur belt where it has a sitting MP, Sanjay Singh.
The BJP’s strenuous efforts to pull back its urban, upper caste voters — who had mostly defected to the BSP in 2007 — will also face scrutiny.
Dinanath Choubey, a postmaster from Sonabhadra (that votes tomorrow), had projected two weeks ago that the Brahmin votes might “tactically” split among the Samajwadi, Congress and the BJP, depending on whose candidate was best placed to defeat Mayawati.
Contacted over phone today, Choubey’s son said his father was “busy” garnering the Brahmin votes for the Samajwadi in the four Assembly seats of Sonabhadra and ensuring that they “remained consolidated”. “The Congress and the BJP are not up to the cut,” he said. The main reason why Brahmin enthusiasm for Mayawati petered out was the alleged large-scale abuse of the SC and ST (Prevention of Atrocities Act), 1989, popularly known as the Harijan Act.
Mirzapur district is an example. Although local police sources were reluctant to share information on the number of FIRs filed, action taken and convictions, Kirti Raj Pandey, a carpet manufacturer in Mirzapur town, explained the reason behind the disenchantment.
“Even if a Brahmin dared to ask a Dalit why he or his animals trespassed his land, he would be promptly summoned by the cops, arrested and released on bail after a few weeks. My information is that nearly 1,000 persons have been booked since 2007. We voted fervently for Mayawati to get rid of Mulayam’s ‘goonda raj’. In the process, we found that while a section of Dalits feathered their nests, we were nearly ground to dust,” Pandey said.
Residents spoke of how cops cautioned the upper castes not to get “entangled” with Dalits. “Their advice was why do you want to touch 1100 megawatt of live wires and then die of shock?” said Shivdhan Yadav, who heads the Bhadohi block teachers’ association. Filing an FIR carried a reward of Rs 25,000 and if the charge was proved, the prize was Rs 1 lakh.
In Badoi Katuata, a village in Phoolpur near Allahabad, Jeet Lal, a primary school teacher, complained of how they were “discriminated against” by the BSP government. He said while “safai karamcharis” (government janitors) were paid a salary of Rs 9,000 to 10,000 per month, those like him were doled out Rs 3,500 and expected to hold special tutorials for primary school kids for no extra payment.
Mayawati’s political aide and Rajya Sabha MP Satish Mishra — who brought the Brahmins into the BSP — was reportedly politely told off at community meetings he had addressed in Allahabad district.
Despite the power-packed presence of the Gandhis in Amethi, Rae Bareli and Sultanpur, the Congress has its task cut out in its putative strongholds. In the Amethi-Rae Bareli seats, the Gandhis were criticised for not “doing enough work” and for being “seasonal visitors”, while in Sultanpur the mood was against the Centre. “The Congress’s policies have broken our backs,” said R.K. Sharma, who works in a private manufacturing unit in Sultanpur.
