Jamshedpur: Early indications suggest that Jharkhand is expected to experience normal monsoon this year.

"We expect a normal monsoon as we do not see El Nino impacting the weather system till August," a senior official at IMD Delhi told The Telegraph, referring to the phenomenon caused by the abnormal warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

"This will also result in timely arrival of monsoon this year," he said, adding a clearer picture would emerge once they were ready with their long-range forecast around mid-April.

So far, he said, the weather symptoms suggested that the state would get a good amount of rainfall.

"Our study suggests that several states in central and eastern India, including Jharkhand, will get scanty rainfall in the pre-monsoon months (March to May), the primary reason being the absence of frequent Nor'westers. It has been observed that in years when rainfall is less in the pre-monsoon months, we can expect good showers during monsoon," explained the official.

S.K. Patel, an official at Patna's IMD centre, explained that when rainfall was less in the pre-monsoon months, the monsoon current became strong. "Because of the heating of land, evaporation is more from water bodies. If the Nor'wester plays truant, the evaporation of water that takes place during summer returns to the ground in the form of rain with the advent of monsoon," he said.

According to Met, several districts have not had rain this month. Moreover, none experienced a Nor'wester that usually occurs around mid-March. Ranchi and Jamshedpur recorded less than 5mm rain this month when the average is around 30mm.

Last year, Ranchi had recorded 24mm rain in March, while Jamshedpur recorded 26.5mm rain. In 2016, Ranchi had recorded 25.2 mm of rain in March, while Jamshedpur recorded 31mm. In 2015, the steel city experienced 23.3mm rain in March, while Ranchi notched 15.4mm.

Last year, the four-month monsoon season from June to September ended with a 10 per cent deficit in Jharkhand. Against a normal of 1,092mm, the state recorded 978.8mm rainfall. In 2016, there was a 1 per cent surplus.

Storm alert

On Tuesday, IMD centres in Patna and Ranchi issued a thundersquall alert for isolated pockets of Jharkhand over the weekend. Thunderstorms and gusty winds were also forecast on March 29 and 30.

"Jharkhand is under the influence of a low pressure trough, which will result in rain and squall," said a duty officer at Ranchi Met centre.