Award-winning author Amitav Ghosh agrees with the “catastrophists of the cognitive elite” that severe global disruption may lie ahead, but rejects the notion that wealth and technology will protect affluent nations, arguing that the resilience of the Global South is underestimated.

Deliberating at length on the topic "Intimations of Apocalypse" at the second edition of the 'BML Munjal Memorial Lecture Series' on Wednesday, Ghosh argued that fears of large-scale collapse are not exaggerated, pointing to warnings from leading climate scientists.

"When sober and cautious climate scientists like Hans Schellnhuber and Will Steffen issue warnings like ‘collapse is the most likely outcome of the present trajectory,’ there are good reasons to be apprehensive about the future,” he said, while addressing a packed hall at the India International Centre (IIC).

The author of "The Great Derangement" and "The Nutmeg’s Curse", counted among landmark books on climate and planetary crisis, said modern societies rely on fragile, complex systems, from supply chains to industrial agriculture, that could collapse from small disruptions.

These vulnerabilities, he argued, are compounded by geopolitical risks and the growing threat of nuclear conflict in an increasingly unstable world.

"Moreover, the world is currently going through an unprecedented geopolitical revolution, a development that is surely to be bitterly resisted by the status quo powers that have profited the most from the old global order," he added.

While acknowledging the likelihood of “very severe disruptions", Ghosh rejected the view of the “cognitive elite” that the wealthy could escape collapse by retreating to fortified enclaves.

“Vast sums of money are being spent on these retreats, but such plans are based on unlikely, if not absurd, premises,” he said, questioning how elites would maintain loyalty among staff or secure off-grid resources.

The 69-year-old also called the notion of self-sufficient retreats impractical, noting that solar panels, water and air purification systems require regular upkeep, while hydroponic gardens depend on chemicals, filters, and spare parts that are hard to obtain in remote locations.

"In such scenarios, the wealthy would become more, not less, dependent on complex supply chains," he explained.

He also challenged assumptions that the poor would be the primary victims of collapse, describing such beliefs as “a contemporary iteration of earlier eugenicist ideas.” There’s a growing conviction in the West that the great bulk of the people who will suffer and die because of the planetary crisis will be in the global south,” he said, adding that affluent countries believe they will be “relatively insulated from the impacts because of their wealth and technology”. Pointing to history, the New York-based author noted that populations once thought to be extinguished have endured.

“Far from heading towards extinction, Africa today has the fastest-growing population in the world,” he said, adding that communities once subjected to genocide “have gone through a revival".

Concluding his address, Ghosh posed a stark choice: “Who would you rather be with -- some tech whiz who’s spent his life staring at a screen, or a farmer or a fisherman who knows how to get along?” The Padma Shri awardee is currently out with his 11th novel, "Ghost-Eye", which focuses on the themes of climate crisis, ecological degradation, reincarnation and memory.

His other acclaimed novels include "The Glass Palace", "Gun Island", "Sea of Poppies", "The Hungry Tide" and "Flood of Fire".

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