The three major political parties in Kerala are grappling with three disparate concerns ahead of the election results on Monday.

For the CPM, the poll outcome will determine whether the party can retain the only state it governs in the country. The Congress is torn between three senior leaders eyeing the chief minister’s post. And for the BJP, clinching even one seat would provide a ballast to the party’s continued existence in the state.

More than half a dozen exit poll agencies have favoured the Congress-led UDF, with the CPM-led LDF trailing it. The majority of them have predicted the BJP to get between zero and seven seats.

The Congress workers are elated with the forecast, but are worried about the tug of war over the CM’s chair. AICC general secretary (organisation) K.C. Venugopal, Opposition leader V.D. Satheesan and senior MLA Ramesh Chennithala are the top contenders and the party leadership will take the final call. Venugopal is expected to get lucky and return to Kerala after an almost 14-year stint in New Delhi.

“Never before has Kerala experienced a stiff battle among the three senior leaders in hot pursuit of the CM’s post. The AICC will decide on who should be at the helm of the state after the UDF victory on May 4,” said a Venugopal loyalist.

The Vengopal faction is worried by the unexpected support in favour of Satheesan by the Indian Union Muslim League, the second-largest ally in the UDF.

The CPM rank and file are worried about the party being dethroned and the impact any adverse outcome would have on chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan. A majority of CPM leaders are ready to blame Vijayan’s arrogance in case the LDF is voted out. A CPM leader told this newspaper that Vijayan was not too worried by the exit poll predictions.

The Kerala BJP leadership is expecting to win at least four seats, which is unlikely, as the party had fumbled the last leg of their campaign with their firebrand woman leader, Sobha Surendran, being caught red-handed in a cash-for-vote scandal. However, BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar is expected to win from the Nemom Assembly constituency, delivering a rude jolt to his rivals in the party — former Union minister V. Muraleedharan and former BJP state president K. Surendran.