The Centre’s claims about an increase in Jammu and Kashmir’s prosperity since the 2019 abrogation of Article 370 now face a challenge from the findings of the country’s top constitutional auditor.

Jammu and Kashmir’s share in the nation’s Gross Domestic Product fell from 0.85 per cent in 2020-21 to 0.79 per cent in 2024-25, according to the comptroller and auditor general’s latest report.

The report, presented in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly, says the Union Territory’s nominal Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) rose from ₹1,67,793 crore in 2020-21 to ₹2,62,458 crore in 2024-25, an increase of 56.4 per cent.

However, in terms of the proportion of India’s GDP, the GSDP witnessed a worrying 7 per cent decline in four years. This is because the GDP grew faster in comparison, from ₹1,98,54,096 crore to ₹3,30,68,145 crore, a rise of 66.5 per cent.

The report does not cover the period after March 31, 2025, and therefore does not take into account the further economic deterioration caused by the Pahalgam terror
attack of April 22 last year, which nearly paralysed Valley tourism.

Even in 2020-21, Jammu and Kashmir was underperforming, as it accounts for a little over 1 per cent of the country’s population, going by the 2011 census (and leaving out Ladakh’s population from the combined figure given by that census).

The four-year period studied by the CAG more or less coincides with lieutenant governor Manoj Sinha’s rule. Omar Abdullah took over as chief minister in October 2024 but presented his first budget in March 2025.

The Centre has consistently claimed that the abrogation of Article 370 removed obstacles to Jammu and Kashmir’s development and put the region on a path to prosperity.

Job ache

Last week, the Jammu and Kashmir government said the unemployment rate in the Union Territory stood at 6.7 per cent, nearly double the national average of 3.5 per cent.

The Centre and Sinha’s administration have worsened matters by sharply increasing the volume of reservations, allowing 30 per cent of the population to pocket 60 per cent of government jobs and professional college seats.

Many believe that the move seeks to target ethnic Kashmiris, who make up more than 50 per cent of Jammu and Kashmir’s population.

The CAG report says Jammu and Kashmir’s economy has rebounded from the Covid-19 disruption but its growth trajectory lags in relative terms.

GSDP growth rose from 2.25 per cent in 2020-21 to 12.38 per cent in 2021-22, but then flattened out to 11.18 per cent by 2024-25. In comparison, the GDP grew 18.85 per cent in 2021-22 before stabilising at 9.78 per cent in 2024-25.

According to the CAG report, per capita income in Jammu and Kashmir rose from ₹1,01,645 in 2020-21 to ₹1,54,826 in 2024-25, but remained consistently below the national average, which jumped from ₹1,27,244 to ₹2,05,324.

While the tertiary services contributed 61.5 per cent to the Gross State Value Added in 2024-25, public administration emerged as the largest contributor within it with a 29.4 per cent share, betraying a reliance on government spending.

Jammu and Kashmir’s outstanding liabilities, according to the CAG, nearly doubled from 8.87 per cent of the GSDP in 2020-21 to 17.21 per cent in 2024-25.

If one takes into account the liabilities of the erstwhile state, the outstanding liabilities have risen to 48.47 per cent, making Jammu and Kashmir one of the
most indebted regions in the country.

That does not include the off-budget liabilities of ₹23,197 crore, the report says.