Congress is poised to romp past the finishing post with around 136-137seats, leaving the BJP trailing with only 63-64. "It is a big victory for the Congress Party. The people of Karnataka wanted a change from the BJP government," Siddaramaiah, widely expected to be the next state chief minister, declared amidst scenes of widespread rejoicing.
The Congress’ almost-certain victory was particularly sweet for the party because this is the first time in more than a decade that any party has won well over the 112 seats needed for a majority. The huge lead means that the Congress cannot be dislodged by an electoral coalition between the BJP and the JD(S) or other defectors.
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"This is a stepping-stone for the Lok Sabha elections," Siddaramaiah predicted triumphantly, adding the victory has happened despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi making 19 campaign trips to the state. He added: "I hope all non-BJP parties come together next year and see the BJP defeated." Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP President J. P. Nadda also made high-profile, whirlwind tours around the state.
Women voters played key role
The opinion polls calculated that women voters had opted for the Congress in a big way and this appeared to have had a decisive impact on the election. Also, the Muslims seemed to have abandoned the JD(S) and solidly cast their votes for the Congress. Muslims form around 12 per cent of Karnataka’s population. The Scheduled Tribes also look to have voted for the Congress in a big way.
The Congress did particularly well in the Hyderabad Karnataka, Mumbai Karnataka and also the Old Mysuru region which has always been seen as a JD (S) stronghold. The BJP hung on to its Coastal Karnataka stronghold.
For the BJP, the Karnataka defeat was particularly bitter because it has now lost its only stronghold in south India. However, the party can console itself with the fact that it has 26 out of Karnataka’s 28 Lok Sabha seats. Most election strategists reckon that the Narendra Modi factor is likely to play a much stronger role in the national elections. Also, the BJP appears to have held on to its vote share in the election.
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BJP, JD(S) big losers
Both the BJP and the JD(S) have come out of the election as big losers. The JD(S) got 37 seats in 2018 and that seems likely to fall to around 22 this time. That was even lower than the pollsters’ predictions of 27. It had been widely forecast in the last few days that the JD(S) would play a prominent role as a kingmaker if the Congress and BJP failed to get a clear majority.
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Interestingly, many of the high-profile defectors who switched parties, like Jagdish Shettar, a former chief minister, were trailing by early afternoon in seats that had been thought to be their strongholds. Several Congress defectors who moved to the BJP before the elections were also heading towards defeats. Similarly, many BJP ministers were trailing late in the afternoon.
The BJP, though it has many loyal voters who stayed with it, appears to have been unable to defeat its reputation of being a “40-per-cent commission” government. Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai was also seen as a particularly weak chief minister. The Karnataka result will also boost the image of Congress Party Leader Mallikarjun Kharge in his home state.
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Cong legislative party meet
The newly elected Congress legislators will have to reach Bengaluru by Saturday evening for the vote on the next chief minister. Two powerful personalities, Siddaramaiah, a former chief minister and state party president D. K. Shivakumar are in the running. Siddaramaiah is widely considered the favourite for the job.
The Congress will have to implement many of its pre-poll promises including 200 units of free power to each household, Rs 2,000 for women heading families and a Rs 3,000 dole for unemployed graduates in the 18-25 age group. Diploma-holders will also receive the same payment.
The winning party had also promised to ban the Bajrang Dal and there’s a question mark about whether they will now go ahead and fulfil this pledge.
One big group of losers are the resort owners in Karnataka and several other states who had hoped that, in case of close contest, the political parties would isolate their legislators in an effort to prevent them switching to another party.
