The BJP has started looking for new areas to make up for the possible loss of Lok Sabha seats in two prominent eastern states — Bihar and Bengal — according to party insiders.
Bengal had already been an area of concern for the BJP, and now Bihar has joined the list after Nitish Kumar walked out of the NDA and realigned with the wider Opposition.
BJP managers were reconciled to face losses in Bengal in the 2024 general election, in the aftermath of the drubbing in the Assembly polls last year that precipitated an implosion of sorts in the state unit.
“We were busy handling the situation in Bengal and now Bihar has hit us. We have to minimise our losses in the two states and also identify potential areas to pick up seats (in 2024),” a BJP leader said.
Bihar (40) and Bengal (42) together have 82 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP, along with then ally JDU and the LJP, had won 39 seats in Bihar and 18 in Bengal in 2019.
“It would be very difficult to retain the 18 seats in Bengal,” a BJP leader said, adding that the party organisation in the state was badly demoralised and faction-ridden.
The BJP managers are also aware that Mamata Banerjee will pursue a national role with increased vigour and would push aggressively to win most Lok Sabha seats in Bengal. In Bihar, the BJP stands to face a real challenge with almost the entire range of political forces — backwards, extremely backwards and Dalits — joining ranks against it after Nitish’s switch.
“Unlike in Uttar Pradesh, we haven’t been able to make credible inroads among the OBCs, EBCs and Dalits in Bihar,” a BJP MP from Bihar said, acknowledging that the “betrayal” by Nitish had left the top leadership of the BJP shell-shocked.
“We need a powerful national narrative around Prime Minister Narendra Modi to overcome the caste combination of the Opposition in Bihar,” the leader added.
This leader pointed to how the terror strike in Pulwama in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls had armed the BJP with a powerful nationalistic narrative that helped the party to sweep the Hindi heartland states.
Apprehending setbacks in Bihar and Bengal, the BJP leadership has started taking steps to increase its tally in Odisha and Telangana. On Wednesday, Sunil Bansal, known for his organisational skills, was appointed national secretary and given charge of Bengal, Odisha and Telangana.
Although Bansal’s removal from Uttar Pradesh as general secretary (organisation) was seen as a fallout of his uneasy relationship with chief minister Yogi Adityanath, party leaders said the new responsibility had been assigned with an eye on the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
In Odisha, the BJP had picked up eight of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in 2019. Party managers said that in 2024 they would try to double the tally, hoping that the elevation of Droupadi Murmu, a tribal face from the state, as President would help the BJP.
Telangana is another state that figures prominently on the BJP’s list of alternatives. The task is not easy given the southern state’s chief minister, TRS boss K. Chandrasekhar Rao, appears as determined as Mamata to emerge as a national player in 2024.
The BJP had won four of the state’s 17 Lok Sabha seats last time and is determined to hold onto it, if not increase the tally.
The party recently held its national executive meeting in Hyderabad to underline its determination.
Despite all the strategising, BJP managers feel that making up would be an uphill task if the setbacks in Bihar and Bengal are too intense.
The political upheaval in Bihar has come against the backdrop of the toppling of the government in Maharashtra that has reinforced the image of the BJP as a ruthless party out to finish off allies and rivals alike. After Nitish’s exit, the BJP has been left with no significant ally.
“It would be very difficult for us to get allies if we fall short of the majority mark in 2024,” a BJP leader said, advising the party to start talks with Odisha’s ruling BJD and Andhra Pradesh’s YSRCP.
The BJD had been an ally of the BJP in the past and the YSRCP is known to be friendly towards the saffron party.
