Cash race

The extended weekend has helped Sanjay Leela Bhansali’s protest-scarred Padmaavat cross the Rs 100-crore mark in collections, but the jury is out among trade pundits on whether the film will be able to touch Rs 300 crore, the figure needed to brand it a blockbuster. 

The period drama has earned around Rs 115 crore till Sunday, including Rs 5 crore from paid previews.

The film released in about 4,000 screens on Thursday, but the protests in states such as Gujarat, Rajasthan, Goa, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh meant that the actual number was much lower — around 3,200. Now, with the protests dying down and states like Bihar getting to see the film, some trade analysts and exhibitors are optimistic that Padmaavat, in spite of the odds, will manage to do business anywhere between Rs 250 crore and Rs 300 crore.

“The film got a bumper opening and the long holiday weekend helped business in a big way. But the real acid test has just begun and that will decide which way the film’s business is heading. So it is a wait and watch for Padmaavat,” said trade analyst Amod Mehra. 

Exhibitor Rajendra Jyala is confident the film will join the fancied Rs 300 crore club. “The way the business of the film has grown in the first week, I can easily see Padmaavat touching Rs 300 crore. With the protests dying down, there is a chance of the film being released in those places where it hadn’t and this will add to the kitty.”

The first weekend often decides the fate of a film at the box office. Hence, the violence, rioting and the fear factor did affect the business of Padmaavat, which cost upwards of Rs 190 crore to make. Trade analyst Taran Adarsh believes Padmaavat has easily lost Rs 40 crore in the present scenario, but added that the “day-wise growth of the film is phenomenal”. “Even internationally the film is heading towards creating a record in some territories,” said Adarsh. 
Asked if the film would cross the Rs 300-crore mark, Adarsh said: “It is too early to say and depends if the film releases in states and places where it hasn’t. That will be nice for the film’s growth at the box office.”

Distributor and exhibitor Rajesh Thadani agreed. “The fear psychosis is ebbing, besides there are no other films and so exhibitors will definitely go for Padmaavat,” he said. But will the film do Rs 300 crore? “I see a comfortable Rs 250 crore for now and I can see a business of Rs 14 crore on Monday and Tuesday. But for Rs 300 crore it all depends upon other states opening up,” he said.

Exhibitor Akshaye Rathi also said the Bhansali movie will probably settle for a business of around Rs 250 crore.
Atul Mohan, a trade analyst, added: “It all depends on how the film fares at the box office on Monday and Tuesday. If it is able to do a business of Rs 14-15 crore, then I see a collection of Rs 108 crore to Rs 210 crore in Week One of its release.”

FILMS THAT TOUCHED BO BIG LEAGUE 

Bahubali 2: Rs 510cr
Dangal: Rs 385cr
PK: Rs 338cr
Tiger Zinda Hai: Rs 338cr
Bajrangi Bhaijaan: Rs 318cr
Sultan: Rs 300cr