Opec sees steep decline in demand, recovery in 2021 uncertain
World oil demand will fall more steeply in 2020 than previously forecast because of the coronavirus and there are doubts about next year’s recovery, Opec forecast on Wednesday, potentially making it harder for the group and its allies to support the market.
World oil demand will tumble 9.06 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report, more than the 8.95 million bpd decline expected a month ago.
Oil prices have collapsed as the coronavirus curtailed travel and economic activity. While some countries have eased lockdowns, allowing demand to recover, fear of new outbreaks has kept a lid on prices and Opec expects this to persist.
“Crude and product price developments in the second half of 2020 will continue to be impacted by concerns over a second wave of infections and higher global stocks,” Opec said in the report.
Opec stuck to its forecast that in 2021 oil demand would rebound by 7 million bpd but said the outlook was subject to large uncertainties that might result in “a negative impact on petroleum consumption” such as demand for air travel, more fuel-efficient cars and more competition from other fuels.
“Almost all forecasters expect jet fuel in 2021 to struggle making up for lost demand,” Opec said.