It’s a huge question hanging over the India-US trade deal, and even seasoned energy analysts say they have no clue.

Will India be forced to stop its huge purchases of Russian crude oil, or will it find a way to keep the tap partially open?

“To be honest, there’s no clarity,” says Sumit Ritolia, lead analyst at Kpler, a data and analytics company that tracks crude oil flows around the world. Everything depends on how strictly the US decides to interpret and enforce the deal.

Ritolia speculates that India may continue to buy Russian crude until the deal is actually signed. That’s expected to happen in March, although there’s no certainty about a signing date.

Former finance minister P. Chidambaram doubts that any pact has actually been clinched. “The Joint Statement issued by India and the US makes it clear that no Bilateral Trade Agreement has been reached. It is not even an Interim Agreement. It is a 'framework for an interim agreement'.”

But he says that one thing is very clear: “The framework deal is heavily tilted in favour of the U.S. and the asymmetry is obvious.”

At its peak, India was importing around 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude. Since December, that has been slashed to around 1 million bpd in December and January. That’s still around 30 per cent of India’s total purchases. In the last two months, Reliance has stopped buying Russian oil. But the public sector giant players continue to source supplies from Russia.

The warning from Washington is explicit.

The US says that it will reimpose higher tariffs if it discovers that India is still buying Russian crude. The statement from President Donald Trump on the deal says: “If the Secretary of Commerce finds that India has started directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil… (it) shall recommend whether and to what extent I should take additional action as to India, including whether I should reimpose the additional ad valorem rate of duty of 25 per cent on import of articles of India.”

What makes this issue particularly sensitive is India’s role in the global energy system.

Indian refineries process large volumes of Russian crude and export the refined fuels to Europe and even to the United States. If India, which imports 85 per cent of its energy needs, were suddenly forced to halt Russian oil purchases, those exports would dry up, potentially creating shortages and driving up global fuel prices.

This is one reason why the previous administration of Joe Biden and the current Trump administration have been wary of pushing India too hard on energy imports.

India has long argued that removing Russian oil from the global market would be deeply destabilising.

In September 2025, oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri warned that forcing Russian supplies offline would have serious consequences. “The world will face major disruption if these supplies are cut. The world cannot afford to keep Russia out of the oil market,” he said.

India, so far, has not talked about what will happen to Russian oil purchases.

Trump is looking to bully India into buying more American and Venezuelan oil but that would be an expensive proposition.

For India, however, this is an expensive and complicated alternative. Both countries are thousands of miles away, making transport costs far higher.

Venezuela’s production facilities have been badly damaged over the past decade and it can produce only around 1 million barrels per day, half of which is already committed to other buyers. Besides that, Venezuelan crude is very dense and only Reliance can efficiently refine it. The lighter Urals crude from Russia is much easier for all Indian refineries to process.

Although Russia is also geographically distant, India has been compensated through heavy discounts. Those discounts had slipped to around $2-$3 a barrel in recent months, but according to the Financial Times they have climbed to as much as $25 as US pressure on buyers has intensified.

Critics argue that the trade deal risks undermining India’s strategic autonomy.

Political analyst Tehseen Poonawalla has strongly criticised the India-US deal, particularly the ban on buying Russian crude. “The US will monitor our every move and slap back that punishing 25 per cent tariff on our exports! I am sorry, guys, this isn’t a partnership, it’s a freakin’ diktat. Our foreign policy is now being monitored by Washington like an errant child!”

The dilemma for New Delhi is stark. Cutting off Russian oil would raise India’s energy costs and badly strain ties with Moscow, its “all-weather ally”.

Poonawalla points out, “This erodes our strategic autonomy, it also weakens ties with long-standing ally and friend Russia, and exposes India to US whims.”

Yet defying the United States risks trade retaliation at a time when exports are already under pressure.