Three failed predictions and counting.

The elusive monsoon in the state has betrayed the recent predictions made by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Patna.

The Met office had first predicted that monsoon would hit the state on June 10, three days before the normal date of its arrival. But a low pressure on the Odisha coast led to a diversion of rain-bearing winds, halting their progress towards Bihar (see graphic).

Next, the showers were expected by June 16. The monsoon finally hit the state on June 15. Thereafter, the city hardly received any rainfall. Last Friday, the Met department predicted revival of the dormant monsoon by Saturday night or Sunday morning. Even that failed.

Offering fresh hope, Ashish Sen, director, IMD, Patna, said: “The drifting of three low pressure areas formed over Bay of Bengal towards the south of Bihar and along the Odisha-Chhattisgarh-Madhya Pradesh region had obstructed good monsoon rainfall in the state till date. However, a twin weather system — comprising a favourable position of the trough line and a newly formed low pressure area on the Odisha-Bengal coast — is moving towards Bihar. It is expected to revive the southwest monsoon in the state by June 27.”

“My 10-year-old son complained of feeling nauseating on the school bus way back home. He was drenched in sweat when he reached home. I am worried how my child would go to school in such terrible weather. Why doesn’t it rain in the city?” said Sudha Singh, a resident of Ashiana Nagar.

Nearly 10 days into monsoon, the actual rainfall received by the state has been 96.9mm against a normal of 106.8mm. Residents of the state capital, however, continue to gaze at the sky in hope.

Weathermen on Monday claimed that monsoon would revive in Patna and rest of the state by Thursday. Met director Sen claimed that lower than normal rainfall in June is usual for Bihar and most states of the country. “It has become a climatological feature that except Kerala and Tamil Nadu, rainfall is not very active across most parts of the country in June. Monsoon arrives in most parts of the country, including Bihar, by June 15. Half the month sees dry spells, while it rains in the remaining 15 days,” said Sen.

On Monday, the first day in most private schools in the city after the summer vacation, the sultry conditions made things difficult for students, guardians and teachers alike. The Met office attributed the prevailing discomfort to the average of 60 to 80 per cent moisture in the troposphere. Discomfort increases when the level of moisture surges to 40 per cent or more, a condition compounded by clear sky.

Earlier, the Met department had claimed that monsoon rainfall in Bihar would be up to 10 per cent surplus in June. However, owing to the inactive monsoon, they have now claimed normal monsoon rainfall this month. “Despite the long dry spell, the monsoon rainfall in Bihar is only 9 per cent deficient till date. Moreover, we expect good rainfall from June 27 to 30, which would bring down the deficiency,” said Sen.

Renewing the hope, Sen said: “Apart from the trough line, the low pressure area that has developed over coastal Bengal and Odisha would act as another factor to revive monsoon rainfall in the state. While moving towards the landmass, the low-pressure area is expected to enter Bengal on Tuesday, Jharkhand and northeastern parts of Bihar on Wednesday and the state’s central parts, including Patna, on Thursday.”