Yasin Bhatkal after his arrest in Motihari on Thursday. Telegraph picture

Patna, Aug. 31: The JD(U) has held back on celebrating the arrest of terror “prize catch” Yasin Bhatkal because of growing concerns that too much of drum-beating could adversely affect its electoral prospects in north Bihar where it is banking on the Muslim votes to see it through.

Bhatkal, the co-founder of the Indian Mujahideen, was arrested along the India-Nepal border in East Champaran on Thursday in a joint operation of the National Investigation Agency (NIA) and the Bihar police.

Surprisingly, chief minister Nitish Kumar, usually quick to pat his police force when they arrest dreaded gangsters or crack down on kidnapping, has so far maintained a studied silence on what the national security agencies have described as one of the “biggest catches”. Sources said that even JD(U) spokespersons have been warned not to “flaunt” the achievement.

The sources said that the JD(U) is worried about losing out on the Muslim votes in the north Bihar districts to the RJD — its chief Lalu Prasad is considered a messiah of the community — and the Hindu votes to the BJP.

JD(U) strategists had worked out that the split with the BJP would help them get the Muslim votes in north Bihar. But the arrest of Bhatkal and his accomplice Asadullah Akhtar alias Haddi has forced them to rework their calculations for the Muslim-dominated seats in north Bihar — Darbhanga, Madhubani, Katihar, Motihari, Bettiah, Purnea and Kishanganj — ahead of the Lok Sabha election next year.

According to the calculations of the JD(U) strategists, Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi was the “most hated” figure among the Muslims. The community, they perceived, would rally around Nitish after he dumped the BJP on the issue of Modi’s projection as the prime ministerial candidate.

But the arrest of Bhatkal and Akhtar has upset the maths. The Muslims, fearing a backlash from the government following the arrests, can continue to support the RJD. The JD(U) could also lose out on the Hindu votes.

Sources said that first, the JD(U) is devoid of an effective apparatus to cash in on Nitish’s outreach to the Muslims over the issue of Modi. Lalu Prasad’s RJD is better placed to maintain the community’s trust for the party has Muslim stalwarts from the region such as M.A.A. Fatimi, Abdul Bari Siddiqui and Md Taslimuddin in its ranks.

The three, by all accounts, are grassroots leaders and have represented the Muslim-dominated seats several times in the Assembly and Lok Sabha. They are now gearing up to enter the 2014 electoral ring.

“These leaders have the power to influence the Muslims more than anyone,” conceded a senior JD(U)leader.

Second, the BJP has been traditionally strong in north Bihar’s Muslim-dominated seats — Darbhanga, Madhubani, Katihar, Motihari, Bettiah, Purnea and Kishanganj — because it thrives on the consolidation of Hindus.

All these seats have a Muslim population ranging from 20 per cent to 40 per cent. In 2009, the BJP won all the seats, except Kishanganj, which was taken by the Congress. The JD(U) always left the bordering seats to the BJP, losing the opportunity to build the party in the region.

After its divorce from the JD(U), the BJP is subtly playing the Hindu card. BJP leader Sushil Kumar Modi said yesterday: “Those who (read JD-U) declared Ishrat Jehan as Bihar’s daughter can also declare Yasin Bhatkal as Bihar’s DAMAD (as he is married to a girl from Samastipur).”

The RJD’s legislature party leader, Abdul Bari Siddiqui, billed to contest from the Madhubani Lok Sabha seat in 2014, put it more succinctly to The Telegraph. “The BJP is all out to present the Muslims in a bad light after Bhatkal’s arrest. Bihar’s Muslims need protection and trust, which Nitish cannot provide after living in the company of a communal outfit for 17 long years,” he said.