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Exit polls predict Mamata win in tight race

Surveys give TMC 152-164 seats, BJP over 100 seats

Arnab Ganguly Calcutta Published 29.04.21, 08:53 PM
Mamata Banerjee.

Mamata Banerjee. File picture

Exit polls coming at the end of the eighth phase of polling on Thursday in Bengal predicted Mamata Banerjee’s return to Nabanna for a third term albeit with much reduced seats.

Most polls predicted BJP coming in second with over 100 seats, while the Left and the Congress, in alliance with the rookie Indian Secular Front, appeared not to have made much of an impact with the Bengal voters.


The ABP C Voter exit poll prediction indicated that the voting pattern in Bengal had not changed much since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

The Trinamul Congress, according to ABP C Voter, is projected to win 152-164 seats in the state with a vote share of 42 per cent, a sharp decline from the 211 seats that the party had won in 2916. The major difference between then and now has been the spectacular rise of the BJP in state’s electoral politics since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, when the party won 18 seats.

On the other hand, the BJP is expected to win 109 to 121 seats with a 39 per cent vote share in the state and emerge as the main Opposition party in the state. For several decades in Bengal politics, the main Opposition party had not crossed the 100-seats mark. For example, in 2006, Trinamul Congress emerged as the main Opposition with only 29 seats and bagged another in a bypoll.

In 2016, the Congress and Left Front contesting the polls together had managed 77 seats between them.

The Sanyukta Morcha, that includes the Left, the Congress and the Indian Secular Front, is projected to bag 14 to 25 seats in Bengal with a 15 per cent vote share.

For the 292 seats in Bengal where polls were held (election for two seats will be held on May 16), 85,000 voters were quizzed on their voting preferences.

The ABP-CNX exit poll projected 157-185 seats for the Trinamul and 96-125 seats for the BJP. The Congress-Left-ISF alliance is likely to get 8-16 seats.

The NDTV exit polls too predicted Mamata’s return to power with 149 seats, just one above the majority mark, while the BJP is expected to get 116 seats. The exit poll gave 16 seats to the Congress-Left-ISF alliance.

The Times Now C Voter exit poll too gave a clear majority to Trinamul with 158 seats, and 115 to the BJP, while the Sanyukta Morcha to get 19 seats.

On the other hand, the Republic CNX exit poll indicated at a hung Assembly with 138-148 seats to the BJP and 128-138 seats for the Trinamul. The Sanyukta Morcha, according to Republic CNX, is likely to get 11-21 seats.

The Jan KI Baat exit poll predicted a comfortable majority for the BJP with 174 seats, followed by 112 for Trinamul and six for the Left-Congress alliance.

"The exit polls give a trend... Nobody can say decisively. Trend is clear. We are winning," Trinamul MP Mahua Moitra told a television news channel.

"I won't get into numbers. Exit polls won't be reflected when the actual votes are counted on May 2. We will form the government in Bengal," said Dilip Ghosh, state BJP president.

CPM leader and Chanditala nominee Mohamad Salim refused to comment on the exit polls.

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