India's growth figures were always approximate; they have become even less trustworthy with the last change in base year. Surveys are less comprehensive than the Central Statistics Office's gross domestic product figures are supposed to be. But it is impossible to measure every penny of GDP, and the CSO takes many short cuts. So in the end, they are probably no better than the results of sample surveys. The Reserve Bank of India has conducted some recently. What do they tell us?

The flow of orders to the sample companies grew at a respectable rate till July-September 2014; after that it slumped. If order inflows slow down suddenly, companies would not be expecting the slowdown, and would find their stocks of finished goods going up. They would also take some time to start cancelling their purchase orders, and their raw material inventories would go up. Both inventories went up in January-March 2015.

The RBI does not get figures of corporate investment until after the end of the financial year; but banks and financial institutions report to it the investment projects they are financing. The money they had promised went down from Rs 2148 crore in 2013-14 to Rs 1459 crore in 2014-15. The companies' actual investment went down 27 per cent from the Rs 1933 billion they spent in 2013-14. As the companies' order books contracted, they cut down rapidly on new investments; their total investment was a quarter less and externally financed investment a third lower in 2014-15, and must have gone down even more in the past six months. The share of old and low-value projects in investment increased; in other words, the growth of new, big projects fell even more.

If employers are doing badly, that should affect their employees, who are also consumers. The RBI did not observe much of a depression in consumer sentiment. That is probably because the companies had not started retrenching; they expected times to get worse, and had pared down their purchases of raw materials and investment goods, but they were not experiencing hard enough times yet to squeeze employees.

These are the companies whose promoters got so fed up with the populist policies of the Congress government. The money they poured into the Bharatiya Janata Party's coffers financed the ubiquitous pictures of the prime minister that plastered the country before the general election. He has a reputation for having made industrialists welcome in Gujarat and created favourable conditions for them. They had good memories of him, and looked forward to his transforming the industrial landscape of India as he did that of Gujarat.

The RBI surveys suggest that their experience after the general election did not reflect their rosy expectations: that, in fact, they have been doing worse after the advent of the new government. That failure should not be laid at the government's door. Governments take time to take hold of the reins and start steering the economy in the direction of their choice; it would be unreasonable to expect the prime minister to wave a magic wand and cover industry with gold. Still, it is a year and a quarter since he was elevated to his position; surely it is time for some green shoots to appear.

He may not have any such shoots to show; but he has done the next best thing. Maharajahs of old times used to engage a man to entertain their courtiers; he was called a jester. The word would be inappropriate for the finance minister, who is a man of overwhelming gravity. But he has taken on the task of cheering up the country. Let us see how he has done.

He inaugurated his first budget by promising to bring down fiscal deficit year after year; he repeated his promise this year. It made sense in the days of chronic Chidambarist inflation. It makes no sense in these days of low inflation and strong balance of payments.

He promised to bring back black money, and appointed a commission to do that. It has brought back virtually nothing, and no one in the government knows how to bring back any. There is a widespread belief in this country that Indians have parked billions abroad. It is pure faith; there is no evidence to back it. Arun Jaitley may share the faith, but he has no clue how to turn the faith into foreign exchange.

He promised to settle the fruitless income tax demands of Rs 4 lakh crore, and give some work to the Income Tax Settlement Commission. He has not moved an inch on the promise.

He promised to hasten the recapitalization of banks by means of public issues; not a single issue has been made. He promised "complete pass-through of taxes" to real estate investment trusts, for which, incidentally, the Securities and Exchange Board of India issued regulations seven years ago. They are still waiting for it. Some people thought of floating Indian REITs in neighbouring tax havens like Singapore, but hesitated when they thought of the possibility of India using retrospective legislation to cripple them.

I have cited only Jaitley's promises from his first budget, which he has had more than enough time to implement. There are many more promises from his later budgets, and outside budgets, which he forgot as soon as he made them.

When I was in the finance ministry, I used to organize meetings before the budget in which the finance minister would listen to industrialists, trade unionists and farmers (separately). The meetings still continue perhaps; but in view of Jaitley's record, it is unlikely that industrialists would give him ideas or expect him to take up any of them. In the circumstances, it was just as well that the prime minister met industrialists and financiers. A dozen secretaries were reported to have taken reams of notes; but not even a press note was issued on the meeting. That is not much of a loss, for if one wants ideas from industrialists, a big meeting is the last thing to call; if they speak at all, they spend their precious time buttering up those in power.

The prime minister told them to take risks and invest. He may not have known it, but that is what industrialists do: Joseph Alois Schumpeter pointed it out 125 years ago. But they do not throw away money; they invest when they see a reasonable chance of making a profit. It is this chance that they expect the government to improve. And the government gives the impression that it has not the slightest idea how to do it. The finance minister has been 15 months at his job, but he shows no sign of having learnt it.

The prime minister needs to act. He is not sitting idle; he travels a lot. Maybe, wherever he goes, he should collect the best economists of those countries and ask them what he should be doing. He transports a lot of industrialists and hangers-on with him when he goes abroad; maybe, he should instead use Air India 001 to import good economists, consult them, send them to Gir forest, and take them back with him on his plane. In sum, the prime minister needs broader exposure.