Personal friendships of leaders of one country with those of others always give way if they come into conflict with the interests of their respective nation-states. Yet, some leaders give inordinate importance to their personal ties with their peers. They think, and even proclaim, that these relationships hold the key to resolving inter-state issues, even those that are seemingly intractable. Two current global leaders who greatly rely on ‘personal chemistry’ are the president of the United States of America, Donald Trump, and India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi.
Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil, a country with which it has a trade surplus. There is little doubt that he has done so, among other reasons, because of his ‘friendship’ with the former Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro. Along with some military and civilian personnel, Bolsonaro had attempted a coup to overthrow, in January 2023, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was elected for a third term in the 2022 election. The Brazilian authorities prosecuted Bolsonaro and others who had attempted the coup. Trump called this malicious and imposed punitive tariffs on Brazil.
The United Nations General Assembly High-Level Segment of the 80th session of the UNGA began on September 23. Traditionally, a Brazilian leader is the first to speak, followed by the US president. Hence, as Lula left the Assembly chamber, he came across Trump. The US president related this very brief encounter with Lula to the UNGA thus “… he saw me and we embraced… we actually agreed that we would meet next week… he seemed like a very nice man, actually. He liked me, I liked him. And I only do business with people I like. I don’t, when I don’t like them… we had excellent chemistry.”
The Brazilian Supreme Court had sentenced Bolsonaro to 27 years’ imprisonment on September 11. Despite this “excellent chemistry”, it is impossible to conceive that Lula would pardon Bolsonaro on Trump’s intervention or because he wants the tariffs to be lifted. While Trump’s disappointment with Lula is yet to come, it has already done so in the case of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Trump never tires of emphasising the great chemistry he has with the Russian leader. During the 2024 US presidential elections, Trump had said, time and again, that he would resolve the Ukraine war in no time. Unlike his predecessor who treated Putin like a pariah, Trump met him in Alaska on August 15 and Ukrainian and European leaders three days later in Washington. Trump was expecting that the magic of his personal relations would lead to a very early meeting between Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky where he would also be present and a resolution of the conflict would follow. Putin is showing no interest in any such meeting. An embittered Trump is now fulminating and railing against and threatening Russia.
It is doubtful, though, that even this experience will lead Trump to giving up invoking his friendship with other leaders as a means of resolving differences or promoting bilateral ties.
Now onto Modi. He obviously feels that his personal ties with other world leaders are fundamental to the successful navigation of India’s foreign policy. He has, therefore, assiduously cultivated some specific relationships, including the one with Trump. Modi gave an insight into his thinking on the significance of personal ties between leaders exactly a year after assuming office in 2014. In a speech to the Indian community on May 16, 2015 in Shanghai, Modi said, “Experts on world relations are observing this visit minutely. And, I too completely understand its significance. It must be the first of its kind that the President of China has gone out of Beijing to welcome the leader of another country. I thank the Chinese President from my heart and express my gratitude for welcoming the Indian delegation not just in Beijing but in Shiang as well.” Later in his address, Modi turned, once again, to his ties with President Xi Jinping and said, “The heads of two states sharing such affinity, such closeness, such brotherhood! This is plus one to what is traditionally discussed in world relations. And many will need time to understand this.”
All through these 11 years, Modi has pursued this ‘plus one’ approach in building India’s ties with other states. He has done so demonstratively and often effusively. Not one of his professional diplomats, intelligence officials or ministerial colleagues has suggested to him that it is illusory to rely on the ‘plus one’ approach in global relations. This is the case even if it is taken as an add-on to the permanent role of interests in inter-state ties. Indeed, India’s then foreign secretary and now minister of external affairs, S. Jaishankar, approvingly referred to the ‘plus one’ factor in the case of Sino-Indian ties. He did so while delivering the IISS’s Fullerton Lecture in Singapore in July 2015. Referring to the then optimism in India-China ties, Jaishankar said it was reflected in Modi and Xi’s behaviour towards each other. His exact words are worth quoting because they reflect that the country’s then top professional diplomat had bought into the ‘plus one’ view. Jaishankar had said, “[that] the two neighbours, whose parallel if differential rise offers a somewhat unique situation in world history, agreed on a constructive model of relationship is no small thing. Past precedents in global history have been largely otherwise. This is not just a conceptual proposition. Those of you who would have watched the Modi-Xi interaction in Xian would have noted that this approach was reflected in their demeanour. The mood today allows for frank and direct conversations between the leaderships. Their shared appearances — including the world’s most powerful selfie — and utterances would have been difficult to envisage a year ago.” Professional diplomats of the old school would cringe, especially at the ‘selfie’ reference, but those who are associated with the ruling dispensation think otherwise even now.
Ironically, it was Xi who blew a hole in the ‘plus one’ view. He has now been followed by Trump. But it is doubtful if either Modi or Trump will give up his futile quest for personal ties as a determinant factor in inter-state ties.
Vivek Katju is a retired Indian Foreign Service officer
