FIFTH COLUMN
The Indian prime minister's recent visit to the United Arab Emirates has once again brought into focus India's changing role in the Middle East, where it has significant stakes which are rising by the day. India's policy toward the Middle East has often been viewed through the prism of Indian-Iranian relations. The international community - the West in particular - has been obsessed with New Delhi's ties with Tehran, while missing India's much more substantive, simultaneous engagement with the Arab Gulf States and Israel. India's engagements with the Arab States in the Middle East have gained momentum in the last few years, even as Iran continued to hog the limelight.
India wants to secure energy supplies and consolidate economic and trade relations with the Gulf States. These states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, or the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council) have adopted a "Look East" policy which has allowed them to carve out a much more substantive relationship with India than in the past. The economic dimension of India's Gulf policy has become more pronounced in recent years.
The GCC countries remain a major destination for Indian investment, even as India is making a concerted effort to encourage GCC investment in India. India hopes that major GCC States such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman would participate in India's planned infrastructure expansion. With a rising demand for infrastructure development, India is looking for large investments from the Gulf. The Gulf States, meanwhile, are interested in human resources from India in order to develop sectors as varied as information technology, construction, transportation and services.
Energy is the driving force in the Gulf-India relations. The GCC countries supply 45 per cent of India's petroleum; the Saudis are responsible for a quarter of those supplies; Kuwait, Oman and the UAE are the other major suppliers. Qatar remains India's largest supplier of natural gas.
Indians are the largest expatriate community in the GCC States. India receives remittances worth around $6 billion annually from its Gulf expatriates. These remittances have contributed significantly to India's economic resurgence, even as there have been growing concerns in recent years about the living and working conditions in the host countries. India is pursuing manpower and labour agreements with Gulf States to help Indian workers in the region.
Narendra Modi's visit to the UAE underlined India's continuing stakes in a region that is going through a period of momentous change. Much like the regional States, India would like a stable balance of power to emerge in a region riven with multiple fault-lines. It was this that led to a much more cautious approach from New Delhi to the Arab revolutions in the beginning compared to the West, and rapid overtures to new regimes once they emerged. All major global powers are struggling with tough choices as they try to strike a balance between their values and strategic interests in crafting a response to the still-unfolding crisis in the region. India is no exception.
Developments in the Middle East will have a great bearing on the future of India's ties with the region. Indian policy seems to be favouring the status quo as regional stability is essential for Indian interests in the region. The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran for regional leadership is likely to intensify along sectarian lines in the coming years. Given India's growing stakes in the Gulf, it will be forced to maintain a delicate balance between these two regional rivals. India's cautious response to the Arab Spring and its aftermath is a testament to India's belief that its policy of engaging various stakeholders in the region is the only one that helps New Delhi in preserving and enhancing its interests in the short to medium term.
