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The plane bearing the last BRICS leader flew away northwards, accompanied by the roar of Mig-21s. It was 3 am on the morning of March 31. The prime minister could breathe easy: his gamble of holding a BRICS summit in his turbulent capital had not exactly paid off, but at least there had been no mishap. In another four hours, the hundred television channels would be back repeatedly displaying pictures of the chief of armed services in his smart peaked cap and the defence minister in his ridiculous pahadi cap. Both will keep grinning at each other, keeping murderous thoughts to themselves. Goodness knows what diplomatic mess self-righteous judges will land the country in. But for now at least, Manmohan Singh could rest on his laurels, and give himself a gentle pat on the back for having laid another brick of the edifice of his new-style foreign policy.
It has been a long haul. As he watched his predecessor, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, from his seat as leader of Opposition in the upper house, his heart was not in opposing the witty old man. He was shocked by Vajpayee’s reckless decision to explode a nuclear bomb. But he could not deny that it had opened up a new vista in foreign policy. P.V. Narasimha Rao, the prime minister whom Manmohan Singh had served, was well aware that the expiry date of Nehruvian non-alignment was over. After 1971, it was non-alignment only in name. Indira Gandhi cut Pakistan into two; but to do that she had to seek an alliance with the Soviet Union. After the Soviet Union imploded in 1991, there was no power left for India to align itself with. Narasimha Rao saw this, and ceased hostilities with the West; trade with and investment from the West went up by leaps and bounds in his time.
If the West found India untouchable, India might as well revel in Dalit pride. The thought struck Vajpayee, who followed Narasimha Rao; he drove into the desert of Rajasthan and exploded a little atom bomb. Pakistan immediately exploded a bigger bomb, and joined India in the Pariah enclosure. Vajpayee then sent his foreign minister, Jaswant Singh, to seek a rapprochement with the United States of America. Although the Bharatiya Janata Party was beholden to Indian businessmen, Vajpayee’s government was not protective towards them. It dismantled the last vestiges of import restrictions, drastically brought down import duties, largely dismantled restrictions on foreign investment, and invited the West to trade with and invest in India. Industrial growth rate came down to its lowest level in the past 30 years. But industry emerged stronger; growth surged to 8 per cent a year and more. India had never had it so good. The BJP thought Indians would be grateful; it went into the 2004 election reminding them that India was shining. Ungrateful as ever, they denied the BJP a mandate. Nonplussed by the sudden good fortune, Sonia Gandhi hurriedly wrapped the mantle of prime ministership around Manmohan Singh.
This was the man who had gained fame as the great reformer of 1991; expectations ran high that he would now work the same magic on a larger canvas. In the event, his domestic economic policies turned out to be substandard. His finance ministers have run ever increasing budgets, leading to high inflation. They have introduced unnecessary, complicated, harrowing taxes. And they have created expenditure programmes that funnelled billions of illegal rupees into the pockets of dishonest politicians and bureaucrats. Forget reforms; his finance ministers have created much work for future reformers, if his party would ever let them come to power. His commerce ministers have fiddled with arbitrary and complicated rules for foreign investment, and thus sent off global investors to go and invest in China. They have kept the import restrictions that the BJP left behind, and used them to sign lots of “free trade agreements” which are actually agreements to trade import restrictions. In his economic policies, Manmohan Singh has proved a worthy successor to his icon Jawaharlal Nehru, or better still, the wartime British government. More generally, he has shown an unerring instinct for giving the right ministry to the wrong minister. Antony and S.M. Krishna were adequate chief ministers; but their stints in Delhi are eminently forgettable. Before he quietened down, Kapil Sibal showed considerable talent for putting his foot in his mouth. Other ministers are better known for their inaction.
But ever since he came to power, Manmohan Singh has been keen on foreign policy. He has kept its reins in his hands; this is where he wants to leave his legacy. Vajpayee dreamt of making India a superpower. That dream is within reach today. India has grown faster than most of the world since 1991; the growth has made its economy one of the half-dozen biggest. But translating that size into power is a difficult business. The BJP thought that once the West recognized India as a superpower, the job was done. The recognition has come. India was the first country Barack Obama visited after becoming president; David Cameron came and courted India soon after becoming prime minister; while Nicolas Sarkozy was courting Carla Bruni, he tore himself away to watch the Republic Day parade with Pratibha Patil. Such are the sacrifices men in power have to make for their country.
But recognition by others does not make a superpower. A superpower is one that can project its power beyond its borders. India can save an Indian ship from pirates, or bring its man to power in Maldives. But any substantial goal is beyond its means even if it were to summon the will. In those circumstances, BRICS is a godsend. It has brought together Asia’s three powers, Russia, China, and India. China exercised Indian minds ever since it gave India a bloody nose in border skirmishes in the 1950s. But the glasses of maotai that Manmohan Singh has clinked with Wen Jiabao at successive BRICS summits have humanized the images of both for each other, and laid the basis for doing political business. And their coming together has isolated Pakistan, which has lost all friends and keeps longing for Chinese protection. Roughly a seventh of India’s exports and imports go to or come from China; only the European Union and the United Arab Emirates are more important. India is much less important in China’s trade; still, it offers a much greater potential than Pakistan. Chinese investment could do much for our industry if we were not so paranoid. But that paranoia, too, may eventually succumb if Manmohan Singh can take friendship further.
Thus, Manmohan Singh has used BRICS to redirect India’s foreign policy from the West to the East. He has to carry his foreign policy establishment with him while doing so, and it has brought much baggage with it. The complaints about the West having exposed the rest to crises are so third-world; the idea of yet another international bank when there are so many already chasing too few good borrowers is silly. Civil servants will feather their beds out of international initiatives. Despite all the fluff they have added, the BRICS tamasha is worth watching.





