In his latest tirade against India, Donald Trump, the president of the United States of America, has suggested that the trade relationship between the two nations has been entirely one-sided, with New Delhi selling its goods to America but not buying much. Those comments, which he made after images of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, and the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, smiling together at the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit made global headlines, were accompanied by the suggestion that New Delhi has agreed to lower tariffs on goods from the US to negligible levels, but that India had taken too much time to agree to lower levies. Mr Trump’s social media post underscores the complex challenge India faces geopolitically. On one side stands a long-time partner — the US — which, under Mr Trump, no longer believes in facts, appears determined to sabotage a decades-old friendship, and is volatile and unpredictable. On the other side stands a historical rival — China — a neighbourhood threat that India must coexist and try to find common ground with. Finding a path between the two will be a stern test for Indian diplomacy.

Mr Trump’s logic-defying 50% tariffs have already started bleeding several Indian industries. As the pain and job losses mount, pressure will grow on Mr Modi to find a compromise with the US. That is where the visuals of the bonhomie with Mr Xi and Mr Putin, and shows of unity among the Global South, might come in handy in projecting India’s multiple options should New Delhi be forced to make a hard turn to the East. If Mr Trump, who views himself as the ultimate deal-maker, genuinely seeks a pact with India, he will have recognised that he cannot make major nations with a history of strategic autonomy — whether India or China, Russia or Brazil — crawl before him. India’s other relationships may strengthen its negotiating position with the US. Yet, negotiate it ultimately must, on terms that are acceptable to both India and the US. Just as India has sought to remind the US that it cannot take New Delhi for granted, Mr Modi’s government must watch its moves with China. The long-standing tensions and the competition with China — bilaterally and in their shared neighbourhood — remain intact. Every country — China and Russia included — is negotiating its own terms with
Mr Trump and the US. The good news is that few countries have the institutional experience and expertise in navigating multiple, often contradictory, relationships that India does. Those skills will now be on trial.