Congress general secretary and Ramtek candidate Mukul Wasnik’s record may not inspire statistical confidence after four losses and three wins over the last seven Lok Sabha elections.

In adjacent Nagpur, Union minister Vilas Muttemwar — the sole Congress winner from Vidarbha in 2004 — faces public rebellion from three powerful leaders who represent important communities of voters.

And in both Wardha, home to Mahatma Gandhi’s Sevagram ashram, and in Yavatmal, the party has taken the risk of upsetting loyal workers by fielding candidates who switched to the Congress only recently.

But Mayavati’s elephant, which both the Congress and the BJP say spoilt the chances of the former in 2004, appears a little bloated on overconfidence this time, giving a leg-up to the panja (hand).

At the BJP Vidarbha headquarters near Patrakar Bhavan in Nagpur, top leaders confide that they do not expect a repeat of the summer of 2004, when an anti-Congress wave transformed into a loo that singed that party here.

And in Yavatmal, where farmer suicides repeatedly embarrassed the government, former Congress MLA from Yavatmal Kirti Gandhi can sense a change in the political hawa.

“There appears a silent wave in favour of the Congress this time,” smiled Gandhi, one of the most respected public figures here and a man not known to overstate his political views, as he sipped a glass of chilled aam panna to beat the heat.

Vidarbha consists of 12 districts, some of which have been clubbed to give the region 10 Lok Sabha constituencies this time — one less than 11 in 2004. The region goes to the polls on April 16.

The Congress is contesting in Nagpur, Ramtek, Wardha, Yavatmal-Washim, Gadchiroli-Chimur, Chandrapur and Akola constituencies. The Buldhana and Bhandara-Gondiya constituencies are being contested by alliance partner Nationalist Congress Party. Amrawati has been left for the third alliance partner, the Republican Party of India (Athawale).

In Nagpur, Muttemwar, the minister for non-conventional energy sources in the Manmohan Singh government, won the last time on the back of conventional support from communities that have voted for the Congress. This time, he faces opposition from three MLAs with sway over crucial vote banks — Satish Chaturvedi (Brahmin), Anees Ahmed (Muslim) and Nitin Raut (Teli).

Take away chunks of voters because of the dissidence, and Muttemwar’s massive victory margin last time — 47.09 per cent votes compared with 34.66 per cent for the runner up — dwindles significantly, say Congress leaders.

A significant surge from the elephant, added to the dissidence, would make it almost impossible for Muttemwar to retain his seat, they say.

But at the BSP’s Vidarbha headquarters, party leaders struggling to get a minimal group of supporters to start a sabha sat smugly confident about their chances.

The BSP won just over 3 per cent votes across Maharashtra in 2004, but managed between 8 to 14 per cent in different Vidarbha constituencies.

“Behenji has told us that we must get 6 per cent votes across the state this time to be eligible for national party status from here. For that, we need 20 per cent votes in Vidarbha. We are confident,” said Suresh Sakhre, the Vidarbha chief of the party.

But there appears little support for the party beyond its traditional Dalit base in any of the region’s constituencies.

South of Muttemwar’s constituency, in Yavatmal-Washim, the Congress has rewarded Haribhau Rathod, the BJP MP from Yavatmal, for voting against his party in the trust vote on the Indo-US nuclear deal.

The Congress candidature for Rathod has sparked open rebellion from Uttamrao Patil, the party’s senior-most leader in Yavatmal, who lost to Rathod last time.

But Rathod’s caste (Banjara, which is the most dominant community here) combined with the draw of the panja for Muslims may allow the Congress to narrowly pull through in a tough contest against the Shiv Sena’s Bhawna Gawli.

The Congress is more hopeful of winning in Ramtek — where Wasnik appears to have struck a chord with the youth — and in Wardha, where its candidate Datta Meghe is among the most popular politicians in Vidarbha.

The veteran politician has been one of the most loyal allies of Sharad Pawar through his political career, breaking with the Congress to join his NCP when it was formed in the late 1990s.

But Meghe switched to the Congress last year after being denied a second term in the Rajya Sabha by Pawar.

Meghe is seen here as a benevolent politician ready to dole out his resources to help the needy.

In an election thin on major issues, his image may just convince voters to dole out their votes in his favour.

• The Vidarbha region goes to the polls on April 16