July 21: The uneasy stalemate between chief minister Nitish Kumar and " bade bhai" Lalu Prasad has rendered Bihar a speculator's delight. Nobody, not even key actors, know how long this act will drag, or where it will end, but that hasn't discouraged punting on imponderables.

One question that has tempted conjecture is who Lalu will pick as deputy chief minister should Tejashwi Prasad Yadav be forced to quit and the Mahagathbandhan government in Bihar is still there to be saved. A fairly robust, if not reliable, echo from the RJD: Boss may skip family this time and pick senior mate and finance minister Abdul Bari Siddiqui for the deputy chief minister's job.

The post of deputy chief minister has no constitutional validity, but it does convey political heft, especially in coalitions. Siddiqui, as senior-most RJD legislator, was widely perceived as automatic choice for Nitish Kumar's deputy when the government was formed in November 2015. But Lalu bypassed his elder loyalist and promoted rookie sons, Tejashwi and Tej Pratap, who took oath before Siddiqui was called out.

So why Siddiqui now? So far as reason works in politics, a couple suggest themselves. Tejashwi isn't the only member of the Lalu family in the CBI-ED crosshairs; several of them, including Rabri Devi and daughter and Rajya Sabha member, Misa Bharti, are; they would barely qualify as replacements. Tej Pratap doesn't enjoy Nitish's favour and has come under scrutiny for allegedly furnishing a false declaration on his fuel outlet in Patna.

Besides, at a time when Lalu is besieged, handing the job to Siddiqui may help assuage the long-standing grouse in RJD ranks that the cream is set exclusively aside for theparty's ruling family, none else. Siddiqui's elevation will send out a rallying signal.

Clearly, Lalu has had one eye on contingency these past weeks - what if another uphill battle lies ahead? Confabulating with close aides and senior ministers has become a daily affair as his alliance with Nitish strains at the hinges. It is probably worth note that Lalu became an outspoken advocate of Meira Kumar's candidacy for President (against the NDA and Nitish-backed winner Ram Nath Kovind), and made an amplified invitation to BSP chief Mayawati to contest a Rajya Sabha seat from Bihar. A bid to sew up the Dalit vote to his Muslim-Yadav (MY) kitty in a future contest?

But that's getting fancifully ahead of the state of play in Bihar; this may merely be a possible scenario in a fickle plot that will take time revealing itself.

The RJD is holding off against pressure that Tejashwi quit owing to corruption charges against him and maintains, therefore, that the question of replacing him doesn't arise. "This is an entirely hypothetical and unwarranted question," a senior RJD leader said on being asked if the party had given any thought to who might replace Tejashwi in the troubled Nitish-led coalition. "Tejashwi is not resigning because we believe he is the target of a political witch-hunt, there is no proof of corruption against him, where is the reason for such speculation?"

But the RJD knows better than the positions it takes for the record: the burden of clearing his name in public is mounting on Tejashwi from his chief minister's quarters. Word from the Nitish camp is that the meeting Tejashwi had with him a few days ago did nothing to convince the chief minister that the corruption slur on him was a consequence of "political vendetta", nothing more.

"We are waiting for Tejashwi to clear his name, there is limited time for that to happen," a close Nitish aide told The Telegraph. "The bottom-line is Nitish Kumar cannot compromise on corruption because that is his political USP." Asked where that leaves Nitish's call for a "Sangh-mukt Bharat" and his oft-stated resolve to fight Narendra Modi's BJP, he said: "But are we going to fight that with a corruption-ridden regime?"

The RJD may have coined another definition for Nitish Kumar's bottom-line; it has come specified by former state minister and current Lalu confidant Shivanand Tiwari. "It appears Nitish has done a deal with the BJP, and his current intransigence over Tejashwi is nothing but a ruse to dump the Mahagathbandhan."

Suspicion that Nitish may be looking to return to the NDA, which he partnered for 17 years, has begun to run deep in the RJD. Among the many straws floating in the wind, they have latched on to two firm indicators: Nitish's hurried declaration of support to Kovind's candidacy and his silence on the BJP's repeated offers of support if the Mahagathbandhan government collapses. "Not on a single occasion has Nitish or any of his spokespersons come out and said they will not accept the BJP's support, what does that tell you about a chief minister who runs a government whose very foundation is to oppose the BJP's politics and its worldview?" a senior RJD leader asked. "Lalu ji has repeatedly said he will not let the Mahagathbandhan collapse, the same firmness or resolve has not emanated from Nitish Kumar or the JDU."

Could pulling Tejashwi out and replacing him with Abdul Bari Siddiqui, then, become the ploy Lalu uses to keep the alliance - and his toehold on power - alive? Nobody quite knows, and nobody's telling.