Exit polls on Monday predicted that the BJP would retain Uttar Pradesh with a drastically reduced majority and the Aam Aadmi Party wrest Punjab from the Congress with a clear mandate.
The India Today-Axis-My India exit poll, however, forecast a 2017-like landslide victory for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, projecting 288-326 seats for the incumbent in the 403-member Assembly.
The counting of votes for all the five states — Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur — will take place on Thursday.
The predictions by multiple agencies for TV channels were made public after the elections came to an end with the last round of polling in Uttar Pradesh on Monday.
For Uttarakhand and Goa, both ruled by the BJP, the exit polls showed a close contest between challenger Congress and the saffron party.
The majority of the exit polls suggested that the BJP might retain the Northeast state of Manipur comfortably.
For Uttar Pradesh, the average of all the exit poll projections came to around 230 seats for the BJP and allies – down from 2017 when the BJP, along with allies, had bagged 325 seats.
The forecasts showed challenger Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and allies putting up a spirited fight and surging from less than 50 seats last time to somewhere around 150.
Exit polls have a chequered record in India. In Punjab in 2017, most of the exit polls had got it wrong. They had predicted a hung Assembly with an edge to the Congress. But when the results came, the Congress had exceeded all expectations to win 77 of the 117 seats.
On Monday, however, all the projections showed the AAP surging ahead and edging out the ruling Congress. One exit poll by Today’s Chanakya predicted an AAP victory in 100 seats.
