The sudden death of NCP chief and Maharashtra deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar could potentially alter the political equations within the ruling Mahayuti alliance, with a section of the BJP apprehensive that the resulting vacuum may be exploited by ally Eknath Shinde to drive a harder bargain.

Shinde, the Shiv Sena chief and the second deputy chief minister in the BJP-led Mahayuti government, had reportedly been feeling constrained under chief minister Devendra Fadnavis’s dominant leadership.

Pawar and Shinde were the two key pillars propping up the BJP-led government in Maharashtra. Ajit’s passing is being viewed as a personal setback for Fadnavis, who had leveraged his “excellent” relations with the NCP leader to keep the “hard-bargaining” Shinde in check and maintain a delicate balance within the coalition.

“Compared to Shinde, Ajit Dada was far more cooperative and dependable. He shared an excellent equation with Fadnavis. His absence could make Shinde stronger,” a BJP leader said.

Shinde’s approach is expected to become clearer in the coming weeks as the BJP and the Shiv Sena negotiate power-sharing arrangements in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). The BJP has emerged as the senior partner in the civic body with 89 seats, while the Sena has secured 29.

Despite the numerical disadvantage, Shinde has been pressing for the mayor’s post, arguing that the BJP cannot run the BMC without his party’s support, a demand that is likely to test the stability and internal dynamics of the alliance.

Strains in the relationship between Fadnavis and Shinde have persisted since 2022. That year, Shinde split the erstwhile Shiv Sena and aligned with the BJP, a move that saw him elevated to the chief minister’s post — an ascent widely believed to have been backed by the BJP’s central leadership.

The development had left Fadnavis, then a former chief minister, feeling sidelined. He initially refused to accept the post of Shinde’s deputy, but was forced to fall in line after a firm directive from the BJP’s leadership in Delhi. “The BJP’s central leadership has decided that Fadnavis should become a part of the government,” then BJP president J.P. Nadda had said, following Fadnavis’s public announcement that he would not join the Shinde-led BJP-Sena government.

After serving as Shinde’s deputy for over two years, Fadnavis made a comeback in the 2024 Assembly elections, with the BJP securing a record 132 seats in the 288-member House. Its allies, the Shiv Sena and the NCP, were left trailing with 57 and 41 seats, respectively.

Despite pressing hard for the chief minister’s post and sulking for days after the results, Shinde was eventually compelled to accept the role of deputy chief minister under Fadnavis. The frostiness between the two soon became evident, with Fadnavis reversing several key decisions taken during Shinde’s tenure and ordering probes into some of them to examine potential corruption. This prompted Shinde to make multiple trips to Delhi to lodge complaints with the BJP leadership, but with little respite — particularly as Fadnavis had the “dependable” Ajit firmly by his side.

“It is no secret that relations between Fadnavis and Shinde are far from warm, but it would be premature to conclude that the Shiv Sena chief will automatically gain greater bargaining power. Much will depend on how the leadership vacuum in the NCP following Ajit Dada’s death is addressed by the Pawar family,” a Mumbai-based BJP strategist said.

Sources said that after Ajit’s cremation in Baramati on Thursday, NCP leader Praful Patel and other party leaders met Ajit’s wife Sunetra for a preliminary discussion on the party’s future leadership. While Sunetra, a Rajya Sabha member, is widely seen as a frontrunner to take charge of the party, insiders said the couple’s two sons, Parth and Jay, could also assume leadership roles.

“The family will take a call after they tide over the bereavement. Sharad Pawar has once again emerged as the fulcrum, and it is difficult to predict what he will decide,” an NCP leader said, adding that it could take some time before the picture becomes clear.

“Shinde’s leverage would increase only if the two NCP factions were to merge and collectively decide to follow Sharad Pawar’s line of staying out of any alliance with the BJP. That scenario appears remote, as most NCP MLAs are likely to prefer remaining part of the ruling dispensation,” the strategist said.