Sunday, 23 March 2025
Sunday, 23 March 2025
The 2025 Delhi Assembly election has been followed by multiple exit polls predicting a shift in power. Some forecast a clear BJP victory, while others suggest AAP might retain a significant presence. The results will be known on Saturday, but The Telegraph Online analyses how accurate these exit polls have been in some of the past elections held in 2024.
Haryana State Assembly election 2024
The 2024 Haryana Legislative Assembly election was conducted on 5 October 2024. The vote counting was on 8 October 2024.
Actual results:
Exit polls completely misjudged Haryana’s elections. Most of them predicted the Congress would secure a comfortable lead with over 50 seats, while the BJP would struggle with 20-30 seats. Instead, the BJP won 48 seats and the Congress fell to 37. The error margin in the predictions for the BJP were:
Highest exit-poll prediction (32 seats): 33.33 per cent
Lowest exit-poll prediction (20 seats): 58.33 per cent
Maharashtra Assembly election 2024
The 2024 Maharashtra Legislative Assembly election was held on 20 November 2024. The counting of votes and results were announced on 23 November 2024.
Actual results:
Every exit poll correctly predicted a Mahayuti win, but none came close to the actual landslide victory. The lowest estimate for Mahayuti was 137 seats, which was off by nearly 100 seats. Even the highest prediction of 195 fell short by 40 seats. The gap between the predictions and reality for Mahayuti ranged from:
Highest exit poll prediction (195 seats): 17.02 per cent
Lowest exit poll prediction (137 seats): 41.7 per cent
Jharkhand Assembly elections 2024
The 2024 Jharkhand Legislative Assembly elections took place in three phases from 13 to 20 November 2024. The counting of votes was on 23 November 2024.
Actual results:
Almost every exit poll overestimated the NDA’s chances in Jharkhand. Predictions for the BJP ranged from 40 to 50 seats but the party managed to win only 24.
On the other hand, the INDIA bloc was predicted to win a maximum of 47 seats but ended up securing 56. The gap between the predicted and actual results for the NDA ranged from:
Highest exit poll prediction (50 seats): 108.33 per cent
Lowest exit poll prediction (31 seats): 29.17 per cent
