Union home minister Amit Shah, the BJP’s chief strategist for the Bengal Assembly elections, has directed party leaders to mount an all-out campaign push, buoyed by internal assessments that project the party would comfortably cross the 100-seat mark in the 294-member House.

Party sources said Shah believes an intensified final push could enable the BJP to pull off a victory in the state. Even in a shortfall scenario, the BJP expects to sharply cut into the Trinamool Congress’s dominance and restrict it to a narrow majority, leaving room for future political manoeuvre.

“The latest internal surveys indicate the party could win between 115 and 125 seats. At the start of the campaign, projections hovered around 100, but the numbers have steadily improved as polling nears,” a key leader managing the polls said. The BJP uses the services of reputed professional agencies in addition to their in-house feedback system.

Polarisation around the issue of illegal infiltration from Bangladesh is resonating with sections of urban Bengali-speaking voters, aiding the party’s rise, party leaders claimed.

Encouraged by the upward trend, Shah has decided to camp in the state for 15 days and urged party leaders to step up their efforts with renewed vigour to unseat Trinamool. Apart from state leaders, the BJP has deployed experienced election managers with expertise in micro-level planning to plug organisational gaps.

Party insiders conceded that organisational weaknesses persist in several regions, attributing them largely to the Trinamool Congress’s entrenched cadre network and its aggressive style of politics. The deployment of seasoned strategists is aimed at countering these challenges.

While BJP’s Bengal minder and general secretary Sunil Bansal continues to steer operations on the ground, Union environment minister Bhupender Yadav, a seasoned election strategist credited with the party’s victories in Maharashtra (2024) and earlier in Madhya Pradesh, has been appointed poll in-charge. Former Tripura chief minister Biplab Kumar Deb has been stationed in the state for several weeks as co-in-charge. Union minister of state for home Nityanand Rai, a close aide of Shah, along with several other ministers and MPs, has also been deployed.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, the BJP had mounted a high-decibel campaign with a target of 200 seats but eventually secured 77. This time, party leaders say the strategy has shifted towards granular micro-management and addressing the primary challenge posed by the Trinamool Congress — the fear among voters and party cadres of post-poll reprisals.

Apart from overseeing ground-level management, Shah’s proposed 15-day stay in Bengal will focus on addressing the sense of insecurity among party cadres and supporters. Party leaders said Shah plans to spend nights in key regions, holding feedback sessions and working to boost cadre morale ahead of polling.

His outreach will also target around 40 constituencies where the BJP had lost by narrow margins in the previous Assembly elections, with an eye on converting these into gains this time.

BJP leaders claimed their surveys pointed to “simmering anti-incumbency” against the Trinamool government, but acknowledged that fear of retribution remained a critical factor.

“There is apprehension among voters and even our cadres about consequences if we don’t come to power,” a leader said. “If this fear is neutralised, we believe we can reach 150–170 seats.”

While Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sought to counter the perception by invoking “sabka hisab” alongside his “sabka saath, sabka vikas” slogan at campaign rallies, Shah has addressed the issue more directly.

“If any TMC worker intimidates a BJP supporter, they will be held accountable. Such elements should remain indoors on polling day, or face consequences after the vote,” Shah said at a rally on Saturday.

The deployment of an unprecedented number of central forces, coupled with assurances that a good portion of them will remain stationed in the state even after the elections, is aimed at bolstering the confidence of anti-Trinamool voters under the campaign tagline “Bhoy Noy Bhorosa” (Not fear, but trust).

The Election Commission has deployed 2,550 companies of central armed police forces for the elections in Bengal and said that 500 companies would stay deployed in the state for post-poll law and order duties.

Bengal had witnessed widespread violence following the 2021 Assembly elections, with BJP cadres and supporters allegedly targeted by Trinamool workers. Around 60 people were reported killed, several women allegedly assaulted, and many families displaced for months amid fears of reprisal.