Global reinsurer Swiss Re has projected that the Indian insurance industry will grow at a compound annual rate of 6.9 per cent between 2026 and 2030, making India the fastest-growing insurance market globally, ahead of China, the US, and Western Europe.
In its market outlook released this month, Swiss Re said the sector, which expanded at an average of 3.5 per cent during 2020–24, saw total industry premium growth (life and non-life) moderate to 3.1 per cent in 2025.
“Structural factors will continue to support the industry. We forecast premiums to grow by 3.7 per cent in 2026 in real terms, and by a CAGR of 6.9 per cent over 2026–30. This would make India the fastest-growing insurance market globally,” the reinsurer said.
Policy reforms are expected to be a key driver of growth. Recent interventions include the GST exemption on individual life and non-life insurance premiums, opening the sector to 100 per cent foreign direct investment, and progress on the Bima Sugam online insurance marketplace.
After near-flat growth in 2023–24, Swiss Re expects life insurance premiums to rise 3.5 per cent in 2025–26 and grow at a 6.8 per cent CAGR over 2026–30 in real terms, supported by regulatory reforms and favourable demographics.
The non-life segment faces near-term volatility due to regulatory shifts and softer demand in motor, health and select commercial lines. However, a better product mix, improved distribution channels and greater regulatory clarity point to a firmer medium-term trajectory, with non-life premiums forecast to grow at a 7.3 per cent CAGR during 2026–30.
The report also highlighted India’s natural disaster loss experience in 2024, marked by multiple cyclones, an erratic monsoon, floods, landslides and a record-breaking heatwave, resulting in overall economic losses of about $2 billion.
Swiss Re estimated India’s asset exposure at around $26–29 trillion, with more than half concentrated in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi-NCR, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, making them vulnerable to multiple perils. A major natural disaster in any of these regions could significantly impair national economic growth.
Strengthening disaster resilience will require greater reinsurance coverage to transfer risk and reduce the fiscal burden, alongside investment in early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure and stricter enforcement of building codes, particularly in fast-urbanising and coastal regions, it said.
