India faces the predicament of cutting Russian crude off massively from its oil import basket if the ‘Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025’ mooted by the US senator Lindsay Graham and greenlighted by President Donald Trump gets bipartisan support and comes into effect as proposed.

One of the highlights of the Act, which will go to vote in the US Senate, allows the US President to increase duty on all goods and services imported into the US from countries that ‘knowingly engage in the exchange of Russian-origin uranium and petroleum products to at least 500 per cent’.

The US market, India’s biggest export destination, will effectively be shut if
that happens.

To avoid such a predicament which will adversely impact the Indian economy and employment generating sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery and fisheries, the India government is more likely to ask domestic refiners to source crude oil from alternative sources.

According to Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst (refining, supply) at market intelligence firm Kpler, India has adequate alternative supply options, with West Asian grades able to replace volumes relatively quickly, supported by flow from the US and West Africa, if purchases of Russian crude were to be curtailed significantly.

“However, there would be an economic cost due to loss of discounted Russian crude,” Ritolia observed.

Russian crude imports dipped in December to around 1.2 million barrels per day, the lowest level in nearly three years, reflecting tighter sanctions, logistics constraints, and growing trade uncertainty, according to Kpler.

Looking ahead, the January–February outlook currently points to Russian inflows in the 1.2–1.3 mbpd range, although this remains fluid and continues to evolve with market and policy developments, Ritolia pointed out.

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, flow of Russian crude to G7 and EU were cut off due to sanctions, forcing Moscow to sell crude at a discount to Asian buyers like China and India.

The trade tapered off after Trump doubled duty on Indian goods to 50 per cent from August 27, 2025 as penalty for bankrolling Kremlin’s war chest. It halved after the US treasury sanctioned two of Russia’s top producers Rosneft and Lukoil from November.

Despite the sanction and uncertainty over the US-India free trade talks, Indian refiners are still buying oil from Russia from non-sanctioned sources such as Rusexport, Tatneft and Alghafmarine.

At the same time, they are also diversifying intake across West Asia, Latin America — including Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, and Guyana—West Africa, and North America, particularly the US.